Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : iM Securities
Analyst : Myungsub Song
Investment Rating : Hold (Maintained)
Target Price : 280,000 KRW (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Despite meeting short-term 2Q25 operating profit expectations, concerns over second-half industry slowdowns, HBM demand growth deceleration, and intensifying competition remain present
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Current Price (as of 2025.07.24): 269,500 KRW
- 6-Month Target Price: 280,000 KRW (Maintained)
- Investment Rating: Hold (Maintained)
- Key Earnings Estimates (2025F): Revenue 84,406 billion KRW, Operating Profit 33,728 billion KRW, Net Profit 26,407 billion KRW
- Key Valuation Metrics (2025F): EPS 36,773 KRW, PER 7.4x, BPS 138,083 KRW, PBR 1.9x, ROE 30.3%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q25 Performance & ASP: 2Q25 operating profit recorded at 9.2 trillion KRW, meeting the previous estimate of 9.3 trillion KRW. However, while DRAM and NAND shipment growth rates significantly exceeded guidance (low-tears of 10% for DRAM, over 20% for NAND), ASP growth rates underperformed at +1% for DRAM and -9% for NAND.
- 3Q25 Outlook: 3Q25 operating profit is projected to improve 12% QoQ to 10.3 trillion KRW, but small-scale operating losses in the NAND division are expected to persist following 2Q25.
- 2H25 Industry Slowdown Concerns: Front-loaded purchasing ahead of tariff implementations significantly boosted set inventories, and 2H25 may face potential industry slowdowns driven by rapid DDR5 capacity expansions by certain suppliers and demand cliff phenomena due to economic deceleration.
- HBM Demand Slowdown & Competition: CY26 HBM demand growth rate is evaluated to be highly likely to decline fundamentally compared to CY25, with competition within the HBM market projected to intensify progressively.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The reporting analyst evaluates SK hynix not by focusing solely on short-term quarterly operating profit achievements or numerical figures, but by exercising caution toward potential second-half industry slowdowns, demand cliff risks resulting from pre-emptive tariff-driven demand exhaustion, and the deceleration of CY26 HBM demand growth alongside intensifying competition risks. This perspective places greater significance on hidden supply-demand imbalances and vulnerabilities in mid-to-long-term growth momentum beneath short-term earnings resilience.
To determine whether this investment thesis is actively unfolding, it is essential to monitor key variables such as whether demand cliffs and industry slowdowns materialize from increased set inventories in the second half, if CY26 HBM demand growth slows as projected, and whether intensifying competition and reduced price premiums in the HBM market actually impact earnings and margins. These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly and annual earnings releases, official corporate IR materials, and official disclosures on DART/KRX.
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