Brokerage : iM Securities
Analyst : Eui-young Ko
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 220,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Target price raised by +22% to KRW 220,000 based on top-tier MLCC cycle recovery, projected FC-BGA supply tightening from 2H26, and integrated component growth (FC-BGA, MLCC, Camera) tied to Samsung Electronics’ foundry contract with Customer T.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: Buy maintained, 12-month Target Price raised by +22% from KRW 180,000 to KRW 220,000 (35.6% upside potential), derived by applying a target P/B multiple of 1.73x (10-year historical average P/B of 1.4x + 1 SD, noted as 1.75x in text / 1.73x in calculation) to the 12MF BPS forecast of KRW 127,784.
- Base Share Price (As of Sep 1, 2025): KRW 162,200 (Market Cap: KRW 12.12 Trillion, Capital Stock: KRW 389.0 Billion, Shares Outstanding: 74.69M, 60-Day Daily Avg Volume: 415,032 shares, 60-Day Daily Avg Turnover: KRW 60.3 Billion, Foreign Ownership: 35.5%, 52-Week High: KRW 162,900 / Low: KRW 105,600).
- Valuation Multiples & Trend:
- PER: 2024: 14.1x → 2025(E): 21.6x → 2026(E): 15.4x → 2027(E): 12.8x
- PBR: 2024: 1.1x → 2025(E): 1.2x → 2026(E): 1.2x → 2027(E): 1.1x
- BPS: 2024: KRW 113,261 → 2025(E): KRW 120,039 → 2026(E): KRW 131,206 → 2027(E): KRW 143,613
- ROE: 2024: 8.2% → 2025(E): 6.4% → 2026(E): 8.3% → 2027(E): 9.2%
- EV/EBITDA: 2024: 5.7x → 2025(E): 6.2x → 2026(E): 5.2x → 2027(E): 4.4x
- Dividend Yield: 2024: 1.5% → 2025(E): 1.3% → 2026(E): 1.6% → 2027(E): 1.6%
- Earnings Forecast Summary:
- 2025(E): Revenue KRW 11.00 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 809.0 Billion, Net Profit KRW 584.0 Billion, EPS KRW 7,822.
- 2026(E): Revenue KRW 11.76 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 1.07 Trillion (KRW 1,068.0 Billion), Net Profit KRW 817.0 Billion, EPS KRW 10,627.
- 2027(E): Revenue KRW 12.46 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 1.25 Trillion (KRW 1,249.0 Billion), Net Profit KRW 983.0 Billion, EPS KRW 12,667.
- 3Q25 Earnings Estimate Revision (Preview):
- 3Q25 Operating Profit estimate revised up by +3% from KRW 239.0 Billion to KRW 247.0 Billion.
- Favorable FX conditions alongside sustained high-value product mix improvements across MLCC and Package (PKG) divisions.
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Component Supply Expansion via Samsung Electronics-Customer T Alliance:
- Long-term chip shipments to Customer T are projected to more than double based on Samsung Electronics’ 7-year foundry contract (~61M chips total, ~8.8M units annual good die).
- Samsung Electro-Mechanics holds a primary supplier position across MLCC, FC-BGA, and cameras; sales to Customer T are forecast to grow from KRW 608.0 Billion in 2025 (~6% of total revenue) to KRW 2.0 Trillion by 2034.
- Customer T revenue breakdown estimated at Camera 70%, MLCC 16%, PKG 15%, supported by the unique capability to offer one-stop turnkey component solutions.
- Content Gains in Physical AI (Autonomous Driving & Robotics):
- Total set shipments for Customer T (EVs, humanoid robots, robotaxis, servers) projected to expand from 1.8M units in 2024 to 6.7M units in 2034 (chips from 3.9M to 12.6M units).
- Per-unit content: MLCC content reaching 12,000–20,000 units per vehicle/humanoid, camera content reaching 8 units (AF cameras for humanoids), and FC-BGA surface area/layer counts significantly expanding compared to AI4.
- Industry Dynamics & Risk Monitoring:
- Top-tier MLCC cycle improvement and projected tight FC-BGA supply-demand from 2H26.
- Potential risks: ① Prolonged weakness in PC FC-BGA, ② margin compression in legacy IT set MLCCs, and ③ sharper-than-expected seasonal destocking in Q4.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The covering analyst views Samsung Electro-Mechanics as a critical hardware partner advancing into Physical AI (autonomous driving and robotics) through integrated turnkey solutions (FC-BGA, MLCC, Camera) tied to Samsung Electronics’ foundry partnership with Customer T, rather than being confined to legacy consumer IT set cycles. The core perspective emphasizes that top-tier MLCC cycle recovery, anticipated FC-BGA supply tightening in 2H26, and long-term revenue expansion with Customer T (KRW 608.0 Billion in 2025 → KRW 2.0 Trillion in 2034) justify breaking out of the 10-year average P/B cap (1.4x) and applying a target P/B multiple of 1.73x (+1 SD level) to upgrade the target price to KRW 220,000 (+22%).
To verify whether this investment thesis materializes, key trackable checkpoints include: 1) achieving Q3 2025 Operating Profit in the KRW 247.0 Billion range to sustain earnings upward momentum; 2) commercial visibility and shipment scaling of integrated components (Camera 70%, MLCC 16%, PKG 15%) tied to Customer T’s SoC foundry roadmap; and 3) FC-BGA supply-demand tightening in 2H26 supporting 2026 corporate Operating Profit exceeding KRW 1.00 Trillion (projected at KRW 1.07 Trillion). These developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR materials, regulatory filings, and corporate disclosures.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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