Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Rok-ho Kim (RA Kyung-kyu Kim)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 240,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Overcoming memory peak-out concerns through premium mix expansion in HBM and eSSD, driving continuous Blended ASP outperformance despite sluggish PC and smartphone demand
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price: KRW 240,000 (Upgraded; applying Target PBR 1.7x to 2025E BPS) / Current Share Price (2024-10-24): KRW 198,200
- Financial Performance & Forecasts:
- 2022: Revenue KRW 44.62 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 6.81 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 2.23 Trillion
- 2023: Revenue KRW 32.77 Trillion, Operating Profit -KRW 7.73 Trillion, Net Profit -KRW 9.11 Trillion
- 2024(F): Revenue KRW 66.26 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 23.29 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 17.38 Trillion
- 2025(F): Revenue KRW 90.53 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 37.75 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 28.88 Trillion
- Valuation Multiples (2022 → 2023 → 2024F → 2025F):
- EPS: KRW 3,063 → -KRW 12,517 → KRW 23,879 → KRW 39,671
- PER: 24.49x → -11.30x → 8.30x → 5.00x
- PBR: 0.83x → 1.85x → 1.99x → 1.44x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.48x → 21.53x → 3.92x → 2.25x
- ROE: 3.56% → -15.61% → 28.14% → 34.35%
- DPS: KRW 1,200 → KRW 1,200 → KRW 1,200 → KRW 1,200
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 3Q24 Earnings Review:
- Consolidated Results: Revenue posted KRW 17.6 Trillion (+94% YoY, +7% QoQ) and Operating Profit reached KRW 7.03 Trillion (turning profitable YoY, +40% QoQ). Revenue slightly missed consensus due to weak PC/mobile demand, but operating profit beat expectations thanks to high-margin product mix expansion.
- Pricing & Shipment Trends:
- DRAM: ASP surged +15% QoQ. The growing share of HBM3E reconfirmed a structural Blended ASP premium compared to prior industry cycles.
- NAND: Despite a 15% QoQ shipment decline caused by inventory adjustments in client channels, ASP increased +15% QoQ driven by solid eSSD demand.
- 4Q24 Earnings Outlook:
- Consolidated Forecast: Revenue projected at KRW 19.8 Trillion (+75% YoY, +13% QoQ) and Operating Profit at KRW 7.9 Trillion (+2186% YoY, +13% QoQ).
- DRAM: Bit Growth +4% QoQ, ASP +10% QoQ. While conventional DRAM price increases remain capped, initial shipments of 12-high HBM3E will expand the HBM revenue share to ~40%, sustaining differentiated price trends.
- NAND: Bit Growth +11% QoQ, ASP +2% QoQ. With eSSD already accounting for 60% of NAND sales, price defense is expected despite downward pressure on legacy NAND.
- Structural Defense Against Peak-out Concerns:
- Conventional DRAM oversupply concerns are partially mitigated by clean capacity reallocation toward HBM.
- The robust structural foundation—represented by HBM reaching 40% of DRAM sales and eSSD reaching 60% of NAND sales—distinguishes the current environment from past cyclical downturns.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix not as a commoditized memory producer vulnerable to macroeconomic headwinds in legacy PC and mobile segments, but as a differentiated AI market leader capable of defending overall profitability and Blended ASP through dominant high-value portfolios in HBM and eSSD. Greater emphasis is placed on the structural margin expansion enabled by AI mix transformation rather than short-term shipment volume volatility in conventional memory lines.
To assess whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include whether the launch of 12-high HBM3E lifts the HBM revenue share to the targeted 40% in DRAM, the sustainability of price resilience supported by a 60% eSSD mix in NAND, and whether restrained conventional DRAM capacity effectively shields against oversupply in 2025. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR materials, DART/KRX filings, and regular financial statements.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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