Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Hanwha Investment & Securities
Analyst : Kwangjin Kim
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 360,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : The target price is revised upward by reflecting expectations for next-year earnings growth, driven by solid 2Q25 results matching high market expectations and the accelerating expansion of HBM3E 12-high sales in the second half.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Current Price (as of 6/26): KRW 293,000 (Upside Potential: 22.9%)
- Investment Rating & Target Price: Buy (Maintained), KRW 360,000 (Upgraded by 24% from previous KRW 290,000)
- Target Price Methodology: Shifted the base for target price calculation from this year’s estimated BPS to next year’s estimated BPS, applying a Target P/B of 1.9x.
- Key Financial Projections:
- 2025F Revenue: KRW 87.044 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 37.892 trillion, Net Income Attributable to Shareholders: KRW 31.569 trillion (EPS: KRW 45,817)
- 2026F Revenue: KRW 97.433 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 43.311 trillion, Net Income Attributable to Shareholders: KRW 33.416 trillion (EPS: KRW 48,496)
- Valuation & Financial Metrics:
- P/E (25F): 6.4x, P/B (25F): 2.0x, EV/EBITDA (25F): 4.1x, ROE (25F): 35.3%, Dividend Yield: 0.8%
- Market Capitalization: KRW 213.3047 trillion, Total Shares Outstanding: 728,002 thousand, Foreign Ownership: 55.6%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q25 Preview: Revenue is expected to reach KRW 20.8 trillion (+18% QoQ) and operating profit KRW 9.0 trillion (+23% QoQ), achieving solid results that meet high market expectations despite negative FX translation effects from a weaker exchange rate.
- DRAM & HBM Shipment Trends: Driven by the full-scale expansion of HBM3E 12-high sales and the commencement of GB300 supply, the shipment portion of 3E 12-high within total HBM exceeded 50% (compared to ~25% in 1Q25). Preemptive inventory restocking demand also drove conventional DRAM shipments up by +14% (surpassing guidance) with Blended ASP rising +5%.
- NAND Performance Outlook: NAND is expected to maintain a surplus stance due to a low base effect from the previous quarter, recording around +25% shipment growth and minor Blended ASP increases driven by mix improvements.
- H2 Earnings & Growth Momentum: Second-half operating profit is projected to expand to KRW 21.4 trillion (KRW 10.5 trillion in 3Q25, KRW 11.0 trillion in 4Q25). Continued mix improvements from HBM3E 12-high sales expansion, combined with strong conventional DRAM pricing (affected by D4 phase-out and D5 production constraints), will act favorably.
- Next-Year HBM Market Outlook: While competition may intensify due to incoming follower entries, market growth remains steep (rising from 228 billion Gb this year to 357 billion Gb next year). The company is expected to maintain its market leadership, with HBM shipments projected to grow from ~122 billion Gb this year to ~172 billion Gb next year.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst evaluates SK hynix’s recent share price appreciation as a normalization process from a previously abnormal valuation discount. The perspective views the current stage as moving past multiple recovery into a phase where expectations for next-year HBM market growth and shipment expansion are actively reflected in the stock price.
To determine whether this investment thesis is actually playing out, investors should closely monitor whether the expansion of HBM3E 12-high sales driven by GB300 supply leads to tangible mix improvement and profit growth, whether second-half operating profit meets projections (KRW 10.5 trillion in 3Q, KRW 11.0 trillion in 4Q), and whether the company achieves its next-year HBM shipment target (172 billion Gb) while successfully defending its leadership against competing entrants. These changes can be tracked through upcoming earnings releases, official IR materials, and regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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