Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Jun-seo Park
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 320,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Structural earnings growth toward KRW 1.3 Trillion in 2026 Operating Profit driven by sold-out FC-BGA capacity through 2027, ASP hikes from increasing layer counts, and rising high-capacitance MLCC demand from AI power requirements.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, Target Price kept at KRW 320,000 (56.9% upside potential).
- Base Share Price (As of Nov 18, 2025): KRW 204,000 (Market Cap: KRW 15.24 Trillion, KOSPI: 3,953.62 pt, Shares Outstanding: 75.00M, Free Float: 73.5%, Foreign Ownership: 39.1%, Beta: 1.16).
- Valuation Multiples & Trend:
- P/E: 2024: 14.1x → 2025(E): 22.1x → 2026(E): 13.5x → 2027(E): 11.1x
- P/B: 2024: 1.1x → 2025(E): 1.8x → 2026(E): 1.7x → 2027(E): 1.5x
- ROE: 2024: 8.2% → 2025(E): 7.9% → 2026(E): 12.1% → 2027(E): 13.1%
- Dividend Yield: 2024: 1.3% → 2025(E): 0.9% → 2026(E): 0.9% → 2027(E): 0.9%
- Earnings Forecast Summary:
- 2025(E): Revenue KRW 11.24 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 903.0 Billion (OPM 8.0%), Net Profit KRW 716.0 Billion, EPS KRW 9,221 (Operating profit beats consensus of KRW 888.0 Billion).
- 2026(E): Revenue KRW 12.76 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 1.29 Trillion (~KRW 1.3 Trillion, +43% YoY, OPM 10.1%), Net Profit KRW 1.18 Trillion, EPS KRW 15,165 (Operating Profit forecast is ~4% above consensus and was revised up by ~13% from the previous estimate).
- 2027(E): Revenue KRW 14.35 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 1.61 Trillion (OPM 11.2%), Net Profit KRW 1.43 Trillion, EPS KRW 18,364.
- 4Q25 Preview:
- Projected Revenue of KRW 2.83 Trillion (+10.6% YoY, +1% vs. consensus) and Operating Profit of KRW 229.4 Billion (+11.1% YoY, +7% vs. consensus), driven by favorable FX conditions and strong demand for AI server MLCCs and FC-BGA.
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- FC-BGA (Effectively Sold Out Through 2027 & Structural ASP Rise):
- Production capacity is effectively fully booked through 2027, leading to upward revisions for 2026 utilization and revenue forecasts.
- Easing of TSMC CoWoS packaging bottlenecks confirms expansion in global GPU/ASIC shipment volumes for 2026; supply scope actively expanding to four new customers, including global Big Tech.
- Layer counts increasing from 18–20 layers to 20–24+ layers, raising process complexity and labor requirements; cost inflation from T-Glass is directly passed through into product ASP.
- MLCC (Higher AI Power Consumption & High-End Duopoly):
- Parallel computing in AI servers drives power consumption, structurally requiring higher capacitance (uF) and surging high-value MLCC demand; maintains high-end duopoly alongside leading Japanese competitors.
- While legacy IT volume growth is mature, raw material price pass-through, production line shifts to AI/automotive, and easing client inventory burdens are driving simultaneous price increases and mix improvements.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The covering analyst views Samsung Electro-Mechanics as a primary AI infrastructure beneficiary, capable of simultaneously capturing structural ASP expansion from sold-out FC-BGA capacity (fully booked through 2027) and surging high-capacitance MLCC demand driven by AI server power requirements. The perspective emphasizes that broadening customer engagements across four new clients (including Big Tech) and passing through raw material costs (such as T-Glass) into higher-layer substrate pricing will structurally elevate 2026 Operating Profit to the KRW 1.3 Trillion level.
To verify whether this investment thesis materializes, key trackable checkpoints include: 1) commercial volume delivery to four new FC-BGA clients (including Big Tech) and ASP realization on high-density substrates exceeding 20–24 layers; 2) achieving 2026 annual Operating Profit of approximately KRW 1.3 Trillion with an operating margin entering the 10% range (beating consensus); and 3) ongoing product mix enhancement in the Component division via rising demand for high-capacitance/high-voltage AI server MLCCs. These developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR presentations, regulatory filings, and corporate disclosures.
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