Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Junseo Park (park.junseo@miraeasset.com)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 2,800,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Structural re-rating driven by non-China FC-BGA supply chain leadership, KRW 8 Trillion multi-year CAPEX deployment across 2026–2027, and strategic asset status for high-capacitance MLCCs
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price KRW 2,800,000 (Maintained) (Closing price KRW 1,716,000 as of June 4, 2026; upside potential 63.2%)
- Key Financial Metrics & Forecast:
- Revenue (KRW): 2024 KRW 10.294 Trillion → 2025 KRW 11.314 Trillion → 2026(E) KRW 13.520 Trillion → 2027(E) KRW 16.465 Trillion → 2028(E) KRW 22.238 Trillion
- Operating Profit (KRW): 2024 KRW 735.0 Billion → 2025 KRW 913.0 Billion → 2026(E) KRW 1.562 Trillion → 2027(E) KRW 3.408 Trillion → 2028(E) KRW 5.870 Trillion
- Operating Profit Margin (OPM): 2024 7.1% → 2025 8.1% → 2026(E) 11.6% → 2027(E) 20.7% → 2028(E) 26.4%
- Net Profit (Controlling) (KRW): 2024 KRW 679.0 Billion → 2025 KRW 706.0 Billion → 2026(E) KRW 1.313 Trillion → 2027(E) KRW 2.827 Trillion → 2028(E) KRW 4.925 Trillion
- EPS (KRW): 2024 KRW 8,752 → 2025 KRW 9,099 → 2026(E) KRW 16,914 → 2027(E) KRW 36,428 → 2028(E) KRW 63,466
- Valuation Multiples (PER / PBR / ROE):
- 2024: PER 14.1x, PBR 1.1x, ROE 8.2%
- 2025: PER 28.0x, PBR 2.3x, ROE 7.7%
- 2026(E): PER 101.5x, PBR 13.7x, ROE 13.0%
- 2027(E): PER 47.1x, PBR 10.8x, ROE 23.5%
- 2028(E): PER 27.0x, PBR 10.2x, ROE 35.9%
- 2026 Annual Consensus Comparison:
- 2026 Operating Profit estimated at KRW 1.562 Trillion (vs. consensus of KRW 1.589 Trillion)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- De-China Supply Chain Restructuring & Geopolitical Premium:
- Geopolitical Tailwinds: With global PCB production concentrated in mainland China and AI substrates classified as national security assets, North American Big Tech is prioritizing non-China procurement. As one of the few non-China suppliers with top-tier technical capabilities, SEMCO commands high pricing and allocation visibility.
- Massive CAPEX Deployment: FC-BGA CAPEX projected at KRW 3 Trillion in 2026 and KRW 5 Trillion in 2027 (KRW 8 Trillion combined), supported by customer prepayments, grants, and long-term exclusive contracts.
- Big Tech Customer Footprint: Secured first-vendor position for LPU inference FC-BGAs for a North American GPU giant, actively supplying server FC-BGAs to a North American semiconductor maker, and currently in discussions for next-gen AI chip adoption with another North American Big Tech client.
- Structural Pricing Power in FC-BGA Substrates:
- Rising accelerator demand from CoWoS expansion, coupled with expanding layer counts, larger substrate areas, and raw material bottlenecks (CCL, T-glass), ensures sustained structural price increases. Selective bidding focused on high-spec products.
- MLCC Transition to Strategic Asset:
- Escalating power requirements in AI servers drive surging demand for high-capacitance, high-reliability MLCCs.
- Lengthening global lead times and depleted inventory cycles drive a structural up-cycle across the entire components business.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electro-Mechanics not merely as a passive component manufacturer, but as an indispensable non-China strategic partner securing a geopolitical premium as AI packaging substrates become critical national security assets. This perspective looks past short-term quarterly fluctuations to emphasize structural multiple expansion, supported by KRW 8 Trillion in planned FC-BGA CAPEX over 2026–2027, first-vendor status in next-generation inference LPUs, and customer-backed exclusive commitments.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification checkpoints include the progress of FC-BGA CAPEX execution (KRW 3 Trillion in 2026, KRW 5 Trillion in 2027), mass production milestones for North American GPU inference LPUs, additional design wins across North American hyperscalers, and the persistence of elongated lead times for server-grade MLCCs. Progress on these fronts can be tracked via upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official investor relations presentations, and periodic regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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