Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Younggun Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 4,200,000 (Maintain)
Core Momentum : Expanding big-tech order backlogs and persistent memory spot-price strength indicate tight underlying demand, while LTA and HBM capacity allocations are expected to further constrain conventional memory supply and sustain earnings growth through 2027.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Stock Performance & Investment Rating
- Investment Rating: BUY (Maintain)
- Target Price: KRW 4,200,000 (Maintain)
- Current Price (As of 7/13): KRW 1,845,000
- Upside Potential: 127.6%
- Valuation Multiples
- Annual P/E Trend: 2024 6.4x → 2025 11.0x → 2026F 6.3x → 2027F 4.4x → 2028F 4.2x
- Annual P/B Trend: 2024 1.7x → 2025 3.9x → 2026F 3.9x → 2027F 2.1x → 2028F 1.4x
- Key Financial Forecasts
- 2024: Revenue KRW 66,193B, Operating Profit KRW 23,467B (OPM 35.5%), Net Profit KRW 19,789B, EPS KRW 27,182, ROE 31.1%
- 2025: Revenue KRW 97,147B, Operating Profit KRW 47,206B (OPM 48.6%), Net Profit KRW 42,919B, EPS KRW 58,955, ROE 44.2%
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 347,518B, Operating Profit KRW 266,817B (OPM 76.8%), Net Profit KRW 210,755B, EPS KRW 295,026, ROE 92.8%
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 507,945B, Operating Profit KRW 388,855B (OPM 76.6%), Net Profit KRW 296,115B, EPS KRW 415,482, ROE 61.6%
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 544,121B, Operating Profit KRW 400,069B (OPM 73.5%), Net Profit KRW 315,380B, EPS KRW 442,513, ROE 40.3%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- External Industry Variables & Order Environments
- TSMC’s June revenue broke historical records in both volume and growth rates, exceeding Q2 guidance.
- As of Q1 2026, the total order backlogs of five major big tech and neocloud firms reached $2.1T (+24.0% QoQ), with the portion slated for revenue conversion within two years growing even faster at $656B (+38.1% QoQ).
- Despite sharp corrections, memory spot prices are showing strength; 16Gb DDR5/DRAM spot prices have risen for over 40 consecutive trading days, nearing previous peaks, testifying to tight market conditions.
- 2Q26 Earnings Estimate Lowered, 2027 Growth Trend Intact
- The company’s 2Q26F operating profit estimate is revised downward by -12% to KRW 62.3T (previously KRW 70.7T), with DRAM and NAND ASP assumptions reduced by -8%pt and -5%pt, respectively.
- Approximately 50% of revenue appears to be locked into long-term supply agreements (LTAs), which adds operational stability while pruning exposure to speculative demand driven by procurement uncertainties.
- The earnings growth trend is projected to continue in 2027 with an operating profit of KRW 389T (+45.7% YoY); as production capacity is allocated toward HBM, remaining supply capacity excluding LTA and HBM allocations will inevitably become even tighter.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective & Thesis Verification)
The analyst notes that while recent stock adjustments were somewhat severe as expectations for Q2 earnings and ADR listing supply dynamics unraveled, the downward revision of profit estimates was largely priced into the previous day’s decline. Because external industry variables, accelerating big tech order backlogs, and spot price strengths remain robust, accumulating holdings at lower price points is considered appropriate.
To verify whether this investment thesis unfolds as expected going forward, it is necessary to track the persistent strength of memory spot prices, the degree of supply tightening driven by LTA ratios, and trends in conventional memory pricing and supply to support the projected KRW 389 trillion operating profit for 2027. Such changes can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR documents, and broader semiconductor shipment metrics.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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