Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : IBK Securities
Analyst : Woon-ho Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 300,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Expanding operational differentiation in Bit Growth and ASP, with surging 2H profit growth (3Q24 OP projected at KRW 8.17T) driven by HBM mix improvements and Solidigm fab normalization
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price: KRW 300,000 (Maintained) / Base Share Price (2024-07-25): KRW 190,000 / Market Cap: KRW 138.32 Trillion / Dividend Yield (2024F): 0.9%
- EPS Estimate Upgrades:
- 2024E EPS: Revised up from KRW 21,637 to KRW 24,888
- 2025E EPS: Revised up from KRW 29,849 to KRW 35,492
- Financial Performance & Forecasts:
- 2022: Revenue KRW 44.62 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 6.81 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 2.23 Trillion
- 2023: Revenue KRW 32.77 Trillion, Operating Profit -KRW 7.73 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit -KRW 9.11 Trillion
- 2024(F): Revenue KRW 73.00 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 26.66 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 18.12 Trillion
- 2025(F): Revenue KRW 93.99 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 33.41 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 25.84 Trillion
- 2026(F): Revenue KRW 100.15 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 31.16 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 24.57 Trillion
- Valuation Multiples (2022 → 2023 → 2024F → 2025F → 2026F):
- EPS: KRW 3,063 → -KRW 12,517 → KRW 24,888 → KRW 35,492 → KRW 33,754
- PER: 24.5x → -11.3x → 7.6x → 5.4x → 5.6x
- PBR: 0.9x → 1.9x → 1.9x → 1.5x → 1.2x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.5x → 21.3x → 3.8x → 2.8x → 2.4x
- ROE: 3.6% → -15.6% → 29.1% → 31.1% → 23.2%
- Operating Margin: 15.3% → -23.6% → 36.5% → 35.5% → 31.1%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q24 Earnings Review:
- Consolidated Results: Revenue posted KRW 16.4 Trillion (+32.1% QoQ) and Operating Profit reached KRW 5.47 Trillion (+90% QoQ).
- DRAM: Revenue grew +44.6% QoQ (estimated Bit Growth +22.0%, ASP +15.0%). Operating margin improved by 10%p QoQ driven by ASP gains and expanding HBM mix.
- NAND: Revenue grew +14.5% QoQ (estimated Bit Growth -4.0%, ASP +16%), with operating profit surging +87.7% QoQ.
- One-off Items: Inventory valuation allowance reversal of ~KRW 300 Billion recognized.
- 3Q24 Earnings Outlook:
- Consolidated Forecast: Revenue projected at KRW 20.78 Trillion (+26.5% QoQ) and Operating Profit at KRW 8.17 Trillion (+49.4% QoQ).
- DRAM: Revenue expected to grow +33.8% QoQ (estimated Bit Growth +3.0%, ASP +29%). Operating margin expansion anticipated via steep ASP appreciation and mix optimization.
- NAND: Revenue expected to grow +4.9% QoQ (estimated Bit Growth -5.0%, ASP +10%). ASP increases will continue through eSSD mix improvements, with profitability improving on Solidigm operation normalization and higher fab utilization.
- Investment Thesis & Positioning:
- Operational differentiation against competitors in Bit Growth and ASP is expected to persist for an extended period.
- Competitive standing in the high-growth AI server market will further solidify, leading to significantly higher operating profit growth in 2H compared to 1H.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix not as a commoditized supplier subject to broader industry headwinds, but as an outperforming AI memory powerhouse that continues to demonstrate widening operational differentiation in Bit Growth and ASP over competitors. Greater significance is attached to the massive 2H earnings expansion (projected 3Q24 operating profit of KRW 8.17 Trillion) driven by HBM product mix improvements and the operational recovery of Solidigm.
To assess whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include achieving 3Q24 revenue of KRW 20.78 Trillion and operating profit of KRW 8.17 Trillion (alongside a projected +29% DRAM ASP increase), confirming margin improvements in NAND driven by Solidigm fab normalization, and tracking full-year operating profit trajectories toward KRW 26.66 Trillion in 2024 and KRW 33.41 Trillion in 2025. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR materials, DART/KRX filings, and regular financial statements.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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