Brokerage : IBK Securities
Analyst : Kim Un-ho (unokim88@ibks.com)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 1,750,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Rapid multi-year earnings expansion through 2028 driven by client-backed massive CAPEX investments and expanding mix of server MLCCs and AI ASIC FC-BGAs
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price KRW 1,750,000 (Raised by +66.7% from KRW 1,050,000) (Closing price KRW 1,413,000 as of July 15, 2026)
- Valuation Methodology: SOTP (Sum of the Parts) valuation framework applying peer multiples from Ibiden (substrate leader) and Murata (MLCC leader)
- Earnings Forecast Revisions:
- 2026(E) EPS raised from KRW 16,426 to KRW 17,874
- 2027(E) EPS raised from KRW 20,986 to KRW 28,187
- Key Financial Metrics & Forecast:
- Revenue (KRW): 2024 KRW 10.294 Trillion → 2025 KRW 11.314 Trillion → 2026(E) KRW 13.739 Trillion → 2027(E) KRW 16.146 Trillion → 2028(E) KRW 18.955 Trillion
- Operating Profit (KRW): 2024 KRW 735.0 Billion → 2025 KRW 913.0 Billion → 2026(E) KRW 1.764 Trillion → 2027(E) KRW 2.944 Trillion → 2028(E) KRW 4.825 Trillion
- Operating Profit Margin (OPM): 2024 7.1% → 2025 8.1% → 2026(E) 12.8% → 2027(E) 18.2% → 2028(E) 25.5%
- Net Profit (Controlling) (KRW): 2024 KRW 679.0 Billion → 2025 KRW 706.0 Billion → 2026(E) KRW 1.387 Trillion → 2027(E) KRW 2.187 Trillion → 2028(E) KRW 3.474 Trillion
- EPS (KRW): 2024 KRW 8,752 → 2025 KRW 9,099 → 2026(E) KRW 17,874 → 2027(E) KRW 28,187 → 2028(E) KRW 44,763
- Valuation Multiples (PER / PBR / ROE):
- 2024: PER 14.1x, PBR 1.1x, ROE 8.2%
- 2025: PER 28.0x, PBR 2.1x, ROE 7.7%
- 2026(E): PER 79.1x, PBR 10.0x, ROE 13.5%
- 2027(E): PER 50.1x, PBR 8.5x, ROE 18.3%
- 2028(E): PER 31.6x, PBR 6.7x, ROE 23.8%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- CAPEX Acceleration & Customer Commitments:
- Over the next 3 years starting in 2026, the company plans to deploy CAPEX equivalent to the total sum of the past 10 years, underpinned by secured client commitments.
- Investments address expanding AI semiconductor volumes, new FC-BGA client onboarding, and conversion demand toward FC-BGA substrates.
- Segment Catalysts & 2028 Outlook:
- MLCC Segment: Structural shortages driven by high-performance AI server demand; server mix expansion is forecast to elevate division operating profit toward KRW 3.0 Trillion by 2028.
- Package Solutions Segment: Accelerated growth led by server and AI ASIC substrates, with division operating profit projected to reach KRW 1.7 Trillion by 2028.
- Corporate Trajectory: Consolidated Operating Profit forecast at KRW 4.8 Trillion and EBITDA at KRW 7.6 Trillion by 2028.
- Foreign Investor Positioning:
- Foreign ownership increased from 37.5% in late June to around 40% in mid-July despite broader market corrections, underscoring high conviction in long-term AI hardware growth.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electro-Mechanics not merely as a component supplier reacting to short-term cycles, but as a premier high-growth hardware platform securing 2028 earnings visibility through unprecedented, client-backed CAPEX deployment. This perspective emphasizes that compressing 10 years’ worth of historical investment into a 3-year timeframe validates structural customer commitments, transforming both server MLCCs and AI ASIC FC-BGAs into powerful margin engines.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification checkpoints include the progress of large-scale CAPEX execution, the onboarding of new FC-BGA customers, the pace of server MLCC mix improvements, and the trajectory toward achieving KRW 4.8 Trillion in operating profit by 2028. These developments can be tracked via upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, investor relations disclosures, and official periodic regulatory filings.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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