Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Kim Min-kyung (minkyung.kim@hanafn.com)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 3,000,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Prolonged structural supply deficit driven by the absence of major MLCC capacity expansions amid surging AI server demand and steep technical hurdles in large-area, multi-layer FCBGA substrates
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price KRW 3,000,000 (Maintained) (Closing price KRW 1,277,000 as of July 16, 2026)
- Key Financial Metrics & Forecast:
- Revenue (KRW): 2024 KRW 10.2941 Trillion → 2025 KRW 11.3145 Trillion → 2026(E) KRW 13.4274 Trillion → 2027(E) KRW 16.0783 Trillion
- Operating Profit (KRW): 2024 KRW 735.0 Billion → 2025 KRW 913.3 Billion → 2026(E) KRW 1.7140 Trillion → 2027(E) KRW 3.3918 Trillion
- Net Profit (Controlling) (KRW): 2024 KRW 679.1 Billion → 2025 KRW 706.1 Billion → 2026(E) KRW 1.4283 Trillion → 2027(E) KRW 2.7237 Trillion
- EPS (KRW): 2024 KRW 8,752 → 2025 KRW 9,099 → 2026(E) KRW 18,406 → 2027(E) KRW 35,099
- Valuation Multiples (PER / PBR / ROE):
- 2024: PER 14.15x, PBR 1.08x, ROE 8.16%
- 2025: PER 28.03x, PBR 2.04x, ROE 7.70%
- 2026(E): PER 69.38x, PBR 8.90x, ROE 13.91%
- 2027(E): PER 36.38x, PBR 7.24x, ROE 22.20%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- MLCC Segment (Lack of Expansion & Tight Supply):
- Utilization & CapEx Stance: Despite capacity utilization exceeding 90% for four consecutive quarters at Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics, 1Q26 Component operating margins (upper-20% for Murata, mid-10% for SEMCO) provide limited incentive for aggressive preemptive CapEx additions.
- Effective Capacity Cannibalization: Rising TDP in AI server racks is driving demand for high-capacitance, high-reliability MLCCs. Prioritizing manufacturing lines for high-load AI parts reduces effective industry supply capacity for commodity components.
- Second-Half Demand Catalysts: Upcoming IT product launches, including Nvidia Rubin and new iPhone models, will further exacerbate supply tightness, raising the likelihood of surpassing historical peak margins.
- FCBGA Segment (Capacity Loss & Technical Bottlenecks):
- Form Factor Expansion: Packaging substrates require roughly twice the area of silicon interposers to support I/O fan-out and high power delivery. In line with TSMC CoWoS reticle roadmap (5.5x in 2026 → 14x in 2028), package substrates are expanding up to 150×150mm.
- Layer Count & Process Difficulty: Build-up structures are expected to advance from 12/n/12 to 16/n/16 to handle expanding HBM interfaces and complex chiplet routing. Escalating difficulty in controlling flatness and warpage will severely limit effective industry supply growth despite nominal expansions.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electro-Mechanics not through the lens of temporary AI sentiment pullbacks or near-term multiple contractions, but as a critical hardware platform positioned to capture a prolonged supply shortage cycle defined by restricted industry capex and escalating technical entry barriers. This perspective places strategic focus on qualitative margin leverage resulting from capacity cannibalization in heavy-load AI MLCCs and manufacturing bottlenecks in large-area, multi-layer FCBGA substrates.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification checkpoints include sustaining MLCC utilization rates above 90% amid 2H IT product cycles, tracking manufacturing progress and yield stability for 150×150mm and 16/n/16 FCBGA architectures, and monitoring margin improvements across the Component division toward historical peaks. These operational metrics can be assessed through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, peer and Big Tech commentary, official investor relations materials, and periodic regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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