Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Hanwha Investment & Securities
Analyst : Kwangjin Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 360,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Structural AI inference growth is expected to sustain HBM demand and long-term earnings expansion, while delayed HBM price and volume negotiations and potential conventional DRAM supply growth remain key near-term uncertainties.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Target Price & Rating: Maintained a 6-month target price of KRW 360,000 and a BUY investment rating, based on a P/B level of 1.9x estimated against next year’s BPS.
- Q2 2025 Earnings Performance: Q2 2025 consolidated results met heightened market expectations, recording revenue of KRW 22.2 trillion (+26% QoQ) and operating profit of KRW 9.2 trillion (+24% QoQ).
- Key Financial Metrics (2025F / 2026F):
- Revenue: KRW 88.691 trillion (2025F) / KRW 98.856 trillion (2026F)
- Operating Profit: KRW 38.256 trillion (2025F) / KRW 42.979 trillion (2026F)
- Net Income (Parent): KRW 32.408 trillion (2025F) / KRW 34.093 trillion (2026F)
- EPS: KRW 47,033 (2025F) / KRW 49,479 (2026F)
- P/E: 5.7x (2025F) / 5.4x (2026F)
- P/B: 1.9x (2025F) / 1.4x (2026F)
- ROE: 36.1% (2025F) / 27.9% (2026F)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Q2 2025 Earnings Background: Shipment growth surged significantly above initial plans, recording +24% for DRAM and +71% for NAND. Entering mass production for NVIDIA’s GB300 drove the sales portion of HBM 3E 12-high products above 50%, while pre-emptive inventory-building demand to hedge against tariff uncertainties was reflected across all application product groups. Consequently, DRAM recorded an operating profit of KRW 9.3 trillion, showing sharp growth quarter-on-quarter.
- Mid-to-Long-Term AI Direction & Near-Term Noises: While the mid-to-long-term high-growth trajectory of the AI market remains unquestioned as AI inference demand increases and investments evolve from enterprise to national levels, near-term burdens include concerns over intensifying competition in the HBM market next year and potential increases in conventional DRAM supply. Next year’s HBM sales volume is projected to maintain growth at around 16 billion Gb (+30% YoY), but final negotiations with customers regarding next year’s HBM prices and volumes being delayed compared to initial plans and slowing growth rates could heighten near-term share price volatility. Furthermore, potential conventional DRAM supply increases stemming from CXMT’s aggressive transition to D5 serve as a near-term burden to digest.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst evaluates SK hynix as positioned firmly within the mid-to-long-term growth track of the AI upcycle, while noting that the company is currently navigating a phase of absorbing near-term noises, such as growth rate deceleration concerns tied to delayed HBM negotiations and potential conventional DRAM supply expansion. Because mid-to-long-term earnings growth remains valid, price pullbacks present favorable buying opportunities.
To determine whether this investment thesis is unfolding as expected, key items to monitor include the finalization status and sales growth trajectory of next year’s HBM pricing and volume negotiations with clients, potential conventional DRAM supply expansion linked to CXMT’s D5 shift, and whether robust shipment momentum extends into the second half following strong Q2 results. These metrics can be tracked through upcoming quarterly and annual earnings releases, company IR materials, and regulatory filings via DART.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
Contact: Compliance and Copyright Inquiries (ksb220805@gmail.com)
