Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Daishin Securities
Analysts : Hyungkeun Ryu, RA: Jiwon Seo
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : 1,450,000 KRW (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Sharp legacy DRAM and NAND price increases and broad HBM supply tightness are driving record earnings expectations, while the shift toward LTAs and prepayment-based contracts alongside planned ADR issuance supports greater earnings visibility and valuation re-rating.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Target Price / Investment Rating: 1,450,000 KRW / BUY (Maintain)
- Current Price (as of 2/20/26): 949,000 KRW
- Market Capitalization: 690,874 billion KRW (Major Shareholders: SK Square et al. 20.07%, National Pension Service 7.35%, Foreign Ownership: 53.47%)
- Key Financial Metrics (2023A / 2024A / 2025F / 2026F / 2027F):
- Revenue: 32,766 billion KRW / 66,193 billion KRW / 97,147 billion KRW / 230,341 billion KRW / 260,753 billion KRW
- Operating Profit: -7,730 billion KRW / 23,467 billion KRW / 47,206 billion KRW / 174,097 billion KRW / 180,921 billion KRW
- Pre-tax Income: -11,658 billion KRW / 23,885 billion KRW / 50,466 billion KRW / 179,669 billion KRW / 187,026 billion KRW
- Net Income (Controlling): -9,112 billion KRW / 19,789 billion KRW / 42,919 billion KRW / 134,747 billion KRW / 138,395 billion KRW
- EPS: -12,517 KRW / 27,182 KRW / 58,955 KRW / 185,091 KRW / 190,102 KRW
- PER: NA / 6.4x / 8.7x / 2.8x / 2.7x
- PBR: 1.9x / 1.7x / 5.8x / 2.7x / 1.8x
- ROE: -15.6% / 31.1% / 44.2% / 72.4% / 43.1%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Upward Revision of Earnings (FY2026 OP of 174 Trillion KRW): Incorporating higher ASP trajectories, the full-year 2026 operating profit estimate has been lifted from 142 trillion KRW to 174 trillion KRW, signaling unprecedented financial performance in the company’s history.
- Segment Breakdown and Drivers:
- Legacy Semiconductors: Bolstered by robust server demand and constrained supply growth, 2026 average selling prices for legacy DRAM and NAND are projected to expand by 159% and 91% YoY, respectively.
- HBM: Amid widespread supply tightness across all specifications, key clients have upgraded their long-term demand forecasts through 2028, with product qualifications anticipated within the first quarter.
- Profitability: Operating profit is expected to comfortably surpass prior peaks from the 2017–2018 super-cycle, setting a brand-new historical benchmark.
- Synergistic Growth Pillars (Earnings, Policy Shifts, ADR): Beyond massive earnings upgrades, structural changes in commercial agreements—such as shifting toward annual long-term contracts (LTAs), prepayments, and customer deposits—alongside formal ADR issuance plans via treasury and new shares expected to take shape within March, will serve as powerful catalysts for shareholder value expansion.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst evaluates that reflecting sharp ASP expansion and severe supply tightness across both legacy and HBM portfolios, the 2026 operating profit projection has been upgraded to 174 trillion KRW. Coupled with historic earnings visibility, structural commercial policy refinements (such as annual long-term contracts or LTAs), and incoming ADR catalysts, this trajectory underpins an accelerated corporate valuation re-rating cycle.
To determine whether this investment thesis is unfolding as projected, key items to monitor include the delivery of annual and quarterly operating profit targets for 2026, concrete progress on annual long-term contract (LTA) adoptions, and updates regarding the formalization of the ADR issuance plan within March. These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly and annual earnings releases, official corporate IR materials, and regulatory disclosures via DART/KRX.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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