Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : iM Securities
Analyst : Myung-sub Song, Woo-sung Son
Investment Rating : Hold (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 240,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : While full-year 2025 earnings forecasts are conservative versus market consensus due to downcycle pressures and extended smartphone inventory digestion, the target price is raised to KRW 240,000 by applying the midpoint (2.0x) of an upgraded P/B valuation band.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Stock Price & Target Price: Closing Price (2025.01.23) KRW 219,500, Target Price (12M) KRW 240,000 (Raised), Upside Potential 9.3%, Investment Rating Hold (Maintain)
- Target Price Methodology: Derived by applying the mid-point (2.0x) of the upgraded P/B band (1.5x–2.5x), which reflects top-tier industry competitiveness, to the FY25 estimated BPS of KRW 118,929.
- Market Cap & Supply Metrics: Market Capitalization KRW 159.797 trillion, Capital KRW 3.658 trillion, Total Shares Outstanding 728.000 million shares, 52-Week High/Low KRW 241,000 / KRW 132,300, Foreign Ownership 56.0%
- Key Financial Projections (K-IFRS Consolidated):
- 2024E Revenue: KRW 66.193 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 23.467 trillion, Net Income: KRW 19.789 trillion (EPS: KRW 27,182, BPS: KRW 98,727)
- 2025E Revenue: KRW 66.583 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 21.730 trillion (-7% YoY, conservative vs consensus KRW 32.3 trillion), Net Income: KRW 15.641 trillion (EPS: KRW 21,484, BPS: KRW 118,929)
- 2026E Revenue: KRW 63.254 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 16.276 trillion, Net Income: KRW 11.563 trillion (EPS: KRW 15,883, BPS: KRW 133,530)
- Valuation & Financial Metrics:
- 2024E: P/E 8.1x, P/B 2.2x, EV/EBITDA 4.7x, ROE 31.6%, Dividend Yield 0.6%
- 2025E: P/E 10.2x, P/B 1.8x, EV/EBITDA 4.5x, ROE 19.7%, Dividend Yield 0.3%
- 2026E: P/E 13.8x, P/B 1.6x, EV/EBITDA 4.8x, ROE 12.6%, Dividend Yield 0.3%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 4Q24 Earnings Review: Revenue of KRW 19.8 trillion and operating profit of KRW 8.1 trillion met market expectations. DRAM bit shipments (+5%) beat forecasts, while NAND (-5%) missed. ASP rose +10% for DRAM and fell -5% for NAND. HBM sales grew sharply, while legacy shipments lagged.
- 1Q25 Preview: Revenue is projected at KRW 16.3 trillion and operating profit at KRW 6.0 trillion (-25% QoQ). Soft PC/mobile demand and inventory drawdowns will drive bit shipments lower (DRAM -12%, NAND -18%, HBM >-10% QoQ) and pull down blended ASP (DRAM -6%, NAND -10%), risking an operating loss swing in NAND.
- FY25 Outlook & Inventory Analysis: Market consensus (KRW 32.3 trillion) appears overly optimistic; annual operating profit is projected to contract by 7% YoY to KRW 21.7 trillion. Based on historical trends where smartphone inventory corrections take 1.5–2 years, a rapid turnaround by 3Q25 remains unlikely.
- Investment Strategy & Trading Band: With an industry downcycle underway, recent share price rebounds are unlikely to transition directly into sustained rallies. Rather than chasing rallies, a patient, staggered accumulation strategy at market lows is recommended.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst evaluates SK hynix as a premier memory maker whose valuation multiple band has re-rated higher due to established HBM leadership, but whose near-term earnings face downward consensus revisions amid an industry downcycle and prolonged downstream set inventory digestion. The perspective maintains a cautious Hold rating, prioritizing the realistic timeframe required for smartphone channel inventory depletion over optimistic market expectations of a swift 3Q25 price rebound.
To determine whether this investment thesis is actually playing out, investors should closely monitor whether 1Q operating profit defends KRW 6.0 trillion, the extent of NAND losses, the actual pace of Chinese smartphone channel inventory depletion following subsidy rollouts, and tangible inflection points in leading semiconductor cycle indicators. These operational developments can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR materials, and regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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