Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : IBK Securities
Analyst : Un-ho Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 300,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Supported by normalizing AI growth momentum and expanding HBM demand for AI inference, earnings improvements are expected to continue beyond the seasonal 1Q volume contraction, driven by structural Bit Growth and ASP differentiation over peers.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Stock Price & Target Price: Current Price (1/23) KRW 219,500, Target Price KRW 300,000 (Maintained, Previous KRW 300,000), Rating BUY (Maintained)
- Market Cap & Supply Metrics: Market Capitalization KRW 159.797 trillion, Par Value KRW 5,000, Total Shares Outstanding 728,002 thousand, 52-Week High/Low KRW 241,000 / KRW 132,300, Foreign Ownership 55.9%, Dividend Yield (2024F) 1.3%
- EPS Metrics: 2024 EPS KRW 22,607 (Turned to Profit), 2025F EPS KRW 34,157 (+51.1% YoY), 2026F EPS KRW 41,835 (+22.5% YoY)
- Key Financial Projections (K-IFRS Consolidated):
- 2024F Revenue: KRW 66.988 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 23.167 trillion, Pre-tax Profit: KRW 20.018 trillion, Net Income Attributable to Shareholders: KRW 16.458 trillion (ROE: 26.7%)
- 2025F Revenue: KRW 81.753 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 31.264 trillion, Pre-tax Profit: KRW 30.410 trillion, Net Income Attributable to Shareholders: KRW 24.866 trillion (ROE: 30.6%)
- 2026F Revenue: KRW 97.638 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 37.475 trillion, Pre-tax Profit: KRW 37.194 trillion, Net Income Attributable to Shareholders: KRW 30.456 trillion (ROE: 28.6%)
- Valuation & Financial Metrics:
- 2024F: P/E 7.7x, P/B 1.8x, EV/EBITDA 4.0x, Operating Margin 34.6%, Net Margin 24.7%
- 2025F: P/E 6.4x, P/B 1.7x, EV/EBITDA 3.6x, Operating Margin 38.2%, Net Margin 30.6%
- 2026F: P/E 5.2x, P/B 1.3x, EV/EBITDA 2.6x, Operating Margin 38.4%, Net Margin 31.3%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 4Q24 Earnings Review: Revenue reached KRW 19.77 trillion (+12.5% QoQ) and operating profit KRW 8.08 trillion (+15.0% QoQ), slightly exceeding previous forecasts.
- 4Q24 Divisional Breakdown:
- DRAM: Revenue increased +20.1% QoQ and operating profit rose +20.5% QoQ. Bit growth was estimated at +4.8% and ASP at +10.0%, with HBM revenue exceeding 40% of total DRAM sales.
- NAND: Revenue fell -2.5% QoQ and operating profit dropped -27.9% QoQ to KRW 0.58 trillion. Bit growth and ASP were both estimated at -6.0% QoQ.
- 1Q25 Preview: Impacted by seasonal off-peak trends and consumer demand softness, company revenue is projected to decline over 20% QoQ to KRW 15.38 trillion. DRAM revenue is estimated at KRW 11.88 trillion (-19.2% QoQ, Bit Growth -12.0%, ASP -1%), while NAND revenue is forecast to drop -35.1% QoQ (Bit Growth -18.0%, ASP -10%).
- Growth Drivers & Outperformance: Normalizing AI market expectations and expanding HBM demand for AI inference support long-term fundamentals. Despite potential moderation in server investment growth rates, clear differentiation in Bit Growth and ASP ensures earnings growth throughout 2025.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst evaluates SK hynix as an undervalued memory leader well-positioned to sustain earnings expansion throughout 2025, underpinned by structural Bit Growth and ASP advantages alongside broadening HBM demand for AI inference, despite near-term 1Q volume contraction from seasonal off-peak trends. The perspective places greater significance on the annual operating profit recovery (~KRW 31.3 trillion) and undemanding valuation multiples rather than temporary sequential moderation.
To determine whether this investment thesis is actually playing out, investors should closely monitor whether 1Q DRAM revenue holds near KRW 11.88 trillion, the pace of AI inference HBM adoption across server clients, and the strength of the Bit Growth turnaround into 2Q25. These operational milestones can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR materials, and regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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