Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Rok-ho Kim (RA Young-kyu Kim)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 240,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : 1Q24 beat driven by inventory valuation reversals, 2Q24 DRAM Blended ASP expansion via HBM 3E recognition, sustained 2H tight supply-demand, and preemptive M15X fab investment
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price: KRW 240,000 (12M, Maintained) / Base Share Price (2024-04-25): KRW 170,600 / Market Cap: KRW 124.20 Trillion
- Valuation Assessment & Investment Rationale:
- Maintained BUY rating and target price of KRW 240,000 based on steep memory price appreciation from tight industry supply-demand conditions and solid Blended ASP expansion headroom driven by expanding HBM and eSSD mixes.
- Financial Performance & Forecasts:
- 2022: Revenue KRW 44.62 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 6.81 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 2.23 Trillion
- 2023: Revenue KRW 32.77 Trillion, Operating Profit -KRW 7.73 Trillion, Net Profit -KRW 9.11 Trillion
- 2024(F): Revenue KRW 68.94 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 23.29 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 16.06 Trillion
- 2025(F): Revenue KRW 95.45 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 39.01 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 28.35 Trillion
- Valuation Multiples (2022 → 2023 → 2024F → 2025F):
- EPS: KRW 3,063 → -KRW 12,517 → KRW 22,062 → KRW 38,945
- BPS: KRW 90,064 → KRW 76,616 → KRW 97,544 → KRW 135,354
- PER: 24.49x → -11.30x → 7.73x → 4.38x
- PBR: 0.83x → 1.85x → 1.75x → 1.26x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.48x → 21.53x → 3.64x → 1.98x
- ROE: 3.56% → -15.61% → 26.28% → 34.37%
- DPS: KRW 1,200 → KRW 1,200 → KRW 1,200 → KRW 1,200
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q24 Earnings Review:
- Consolidated Results: Revenue posted KRW 12.4 Trillion (+144% YoY, +10% QoQ) and Operating Profit reached KRW 2.9 Trillion (turning profitable YoY, +734% QoQ), beating estimates.
- Segment Highlights:
- DRAM: Shipments declined -15% QoQ but ASP surged +21% QoQ; profitability topped forecasts on expanding high-value product shares led by HBM.
- NAND: Shipments remained flat QoQ while ASP surged +32% QoQ; eSSD mix improvement and inventory valuation reversals drove a successful return to profitability.
- One-offs: Total inventory valuation allowance reversals for DRAM and NAND combined reached approximately KRW 0.9 Trillion.
- 2Q24 Earnings Preview:
- Consolidated Forecast: Revenue projected at KRW 16.1 Trillion (+120% YoY, +30% QoQ) and Operating Profit at KRW 5.2 Trillion (turning profitable YoY, +82% QoQ).
- DRAM Segment: Shipments projected +14% QoQ with ASP +21% QoQ, driving DRAM revenue up +38% QoQ. HBM 3E volume commencement and generational price premiums will lift Blended ASP.
- NAND Segment: Shipments expected flat QoQ with ASP +15% QoQ (potential upside during the quarter due to tight eSSD supply). Inventory reversals expected to decrease QoQ.
- 2H24 Outlook & Strategic Investment:
- HBM 3E Expansion: Increasing HBM 3E volume share every quarter starting in 2Q24 creates potential upside to DRAM pricing assumptions.
- Supply-Demand Dynamic: Tight supply conditions will persist in 2H24 due to limited commodity DRAM capacity, alongside potential demand recovery in smartphones and PCs.
- M15X Fab Investment: The M15X fab investment disclosed on April 24 is analyzed as a preemptive move to secure cleanroom space for post-2025 demand.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix not merely as a cyclical beneficiary of price recoveries, but as an outperforming AI memory leader that has structurally expanded DRAM Blended ASP upside through proactive mix enhancements in HBM and high-capacity eSSD. Greater importance is attached to full-scale 2Q24 HBM 3E shipments, persistent 2H supply tightness from constrained commodity DRAM capacity, and the strategic preemptive M15X fab investment for post-2025 market growth rather than one-off 1Q inventory reversals.
To assess whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include achieving 2Q24 revenue of KRW 16.1 Trillion and operating profit of KRW 5.2 Trillion, quarterly expansion of HBM 3E mix lifting Blended DRAM ASP, NAND price realization under tight eSSD supply conditions, and execution progress on the M15X investment securing future cleanroom capacity. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR materials, DART/KRX filings, and regular financial statements.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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