Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Jun-seo Park
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 200,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Entering an earnings expansion cycle driven by surging high-capacitance MLCC content per AI server, steady capacity utilization gains, and smartphone demand recovery from China’s subsidies.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / KRW 200,000 (Maintained)
- Current Share Price (As of Jan 24, 2025): KRW 128,100 (Upside potential: 56.1%)
- Key Financial Metrics & Forecast:
- Revenue: 2023A KRW 8.91T → 2024F KRW 10.28T → 2025F KRW 11.24T → 2026F KRW 12.36T
- Operating Profit: 2023A KRW 639.0B → 2024F KRW 735.0B (OPM 7.2%) → 2025F KRW 903.0B (OPM 8.0%) → 2026F KRW 1.03T (OPM 8.4%)
- Net Profit (Controlling): 2023A KRW 423.0B → 2024F KRW 498.0B → 2025F KRW 683.0B → 2026F KRW 799.0B
- EPS: 2023A KRW 5,450 → 2024F KRW 6,419 → 2025F KRW 8,801 → 2026F KRW 10,290
- P/E: 2023A 28.1x → 2024F 19.3x → 2025F 14.6x → 2026F 12.4x
- P/B: 2023A 1.5x → 2024F 1.1x → 2025F 1.1x → 2026F 1.0x
- ROE: 2023A 5.5% → 2024F 6.1% → 2025F 7.8% → 2026F 8.5%
- Dividend Yield: 2023A 0.8% → 2024F 1.2% → 2025F 1.5% → 2026F 1.5%
- 4Q24 Earnings Review: Revenue of KRW 2.47T (+7.3% YoY), Operating Profit of KRW 115.0B (+4.2% YoY), affected by seasonal inventory adjustments while MLCC inventory remained stable at 4–5 weeks.
- 1Q25 Earnings Preview: Projected Revenue of KRW 2.70T (+7.3% YoY), Operating Profit of KRW 199.6B (+10.7% YoY, OPM 8.0%).
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- MLCC Division & Utilization Ramp-Up: Utilization rates are projected to improve sequentially through 2025 (1Q25 83% → 2Q25 86% → 3Q25 90%), underpinning continuous quarter-on-quarter earnings growth.
- AI Server Content Growth: MLCC content per server unit is estimated to expand dramatically compared to legacy servers (10x for B100, 15x for H100, and over 150x for GB200). The industrial MLCC revenue share (AI server, power) is expected to rise from 15% in 4Q24 to 18% in 1Q25, with further expansion following mass production of GB200 in 2Q25.
- Package Substrates: Anticipated acquisition of new global customers for custom ASIC packaging substrates.
- China Subsidy Stimulus: The consumer electronics subsidy implemented on January 20 (offering 15% subsidies on smart devices priced under RMB 6,000) is expected to accelerate Chinese smartphone retail sales and drive preemptive component restocking by set manufacturers.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electro-Mechanics not merely as a passive component supplier bound by standard consumer device demand cycles, but as a direct beneficiary of the generative AI infrastructure boom where architectural complexity exponentially increases passive component content per system. The core thesis emphasizes an inflection point into a multi-quarter profit expansion cycle powered by high-capacitance product mix improvement and steady fab utilization gains across 2025.
To verify whether this investment thesis progresses according to projections, key tracking points include the sequential recovery of MLCC fab utilization toward the 90% level, the rising revenue contribution of high-margin industrial and AI server MLCCs following 2Q25 GB200 mass production, the sustainability of component replenishment orders driven by China’s trade-in subsidies, and concrete customer additions for ASIC packaging substrates. These developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly financial disclosures, official IR materials, and regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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