Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Daishin Securities
Analyst : Seok-hwan Shin
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 265,000 (Upgraded, +15.2%)
Core Momentum : Operating profit forecast upgrades for 2024/2025 (KRW 21.6T / KRW 31.9T) driven by full-quarter 8-high HBM3E recognition and expanding eSSD demand, alongside 12-high HBM3E shipments in 2H25
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price: KRW 265,000 (Upgraded by +15.2%) / Base Share Price (24.06.18): KRW 234,500 / Market Cap: KRW 170.72 Trillion
- Target Price Valuation Logic:
- Derived by applying a Target P/B multiple of 2.2x to 2025E BPS of KRW 118,276.
- Upgrade drivers: ① Expanded DRAM profitability from full-quarter recognition of 8-high HBM3E shipments starting in 2Q24, and ② Upward earnings revisions for 2024/2025 supported by expanding eSSD demand and NAND recovery.
- Financial Performance & Forecasts:
- 2022A: Revenue KRW 44.62 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 6.81 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 2.23 Trillion
- 2023A: Revenue KRW 32.77 Trillion, Operating Profit -KRW 7.73 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit -KRW 9.11 Trillion
- 2024F: Revenue KRW 67.54 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 21.63 Trillion (KRW 21.6 Trillion in text), Controlling Net Profit KRW 13.40 Trillion
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 85.95 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 31.96 Trillion (KRW 31.9 Trillion in text), Controlling Net Profit KRW 20.58 Trillion
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 90.67 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 33.56 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 22.30 Trillion
- Valuation Multiples (2022A → 2023A → 2024F → 2025F → 2026F):
- EPS: KRW 3,063 → -KRW 12,517 → KRW 18,407 → KRW 28,262 → KRW 30,634
- BPS: KRW 86,904 → KRW 73,495 → KRW 90,947 → KRW 118,276 → KRW 148,002
- PER: 24.5x → N/A → 11.3x → 7.3x → 6.8x
- PBR: 0.9x → 1.9x → 2.6x → 2.0x → 1.6x
- ROE: 3.6% → -15.6% → 22.4% → 27.0% → 23.0%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q24 Earnings Preview:
- Consolidated Forecast: Revenue projected at KRW 16.38 Trillion (+124.1% YoY, +31.7% QoQ) and Operating Profit at KRW 5.01 Trillion (turning profitable YoY, +73.7% QoQ, OPM 31%), beating consensus (Operating Profit KRW 4.72 Trillion).
- DRAM Segment: Revenue estimated at KRW 10.5 Trillion (+134% YoY), Bit Growth +16% QoQ, ASP +14% QoQ. Full-quarter recognition of 8-high HBM3E shipped since March 2024 is projected to drive operating profit to KRW 4.2 Trillion (OPM 40%, +9%p QoQ).
- NAND Segment: Revenue estimated at KRW 5.2 Trillion (+135% YoY), Bit Growth Flat, ASP +16% QoQ. Driven by high-capacity QLC eSSD demand and Solidigm margin recovery, NAND operating margin is projected to reach 15.6% (+2.6%p QoQ), aided by residual inventory valuation reversals.
- Annual Outlook & Premium Product Dynamics:
- DRAM Annual Operating Profit: Projected to expand to KRW 18.4 Trillion in 2024 and KRW 27.9 Trillion in 2025 driven by increased shipments of HBM, DDR5, and premium products.
- HBM Competitiveness: Commanded price premiums over prior generations and first-mover status in HBM3E will sustain strong HBM revenue momentum into 2025.
- 12-High HBM3E: Commercial supply of 12-high HBM3E is expected to begin in earnest in 2H25, further validating market leadership.
- NAND Growth Vectors: Long-term growth momentum supported by continuous replacement of legacy HDDs with enterprise SSDs and projected cSSD demand recovery in 2025.
- 3Q24 Forecast:
- Revenue projected at KRW 18.80 Trillion (+107.3% YoY, +14.8% QoQ) and Operating Profit at KRW 6.47 Trillion (turning profitable YoY, +29.1% QoQ).
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix not as a supplier vulnerable to valuation multiple compression, but as a premier AI memory leader poised to deliver massive positive earnings surprises (projected full-year operating profits of KRW 21.6 Trillion in 2024 and KRW 31.9 Trillion in 2025). Greater significance is attached to full-quarter 8-high HBM3E earnings recognition, Solidigm’s profitability turnaround in high-capacity QLC eSSDs, and the upcoming 2H25 commercialization of 12-high HBM3E rather than short-term market fluctuations.
To assess whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include achieving 2Q24 operating profit of KRW 5.01 Trillion (DRAM OPM 40%, NAND OPM 15.6%), sustaining sequential profit growth in 3Q24 toward KRW 6.47 Trillion, and tracking commercial milestones for 12-high HBM3E deliveries targeted for 2H25. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR materials, DART/KRX filings, and regular financial statements.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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