Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Daishin Securities
Analyst : Seok-hwan Shin
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 265,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Record-breaking quarterly revenue driven by premium product mix (HBM/eSSD) and memory price recovery, with 4Q24 12-high HBM3E commercialization setting the stage for 2025 earnings level-up
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price: KRW 265,000 (derived by applying Target P/B 2.1x to 2025E BPS of KRW 129,363) / Base Share Price (24.07.25): KRW 190,000 / Market Cap: KRW 138.32 Trillion
- Annual Operating Profit Projections:
- 2024(F) Operating Profit: Estimated at KRW 23.6 Trillion
- 2025(F) Operating Profit: Estimated at KRW 38.0 Trillion
- Key Quarterly Financial Trends (2Q24 Actual & 3Q24 Forecast):
- 2Q24 Results: Revenue posted KRW 16.42 Trillion (YoY +125%, QoQ +32%), Operating Profit reached KRW 5.47 Trillion (turning profitable YoY, QoQ +89.4%), and Net Profit recorded KRW 4.12 Trillion (turning profitable YoY, QoQ +114.7%), beating consensus and brokerage estimates while achieving record revenue.
- 3Q24 Forecast: Revenue projected at KRW 18.31 Trillion (YoY +102.0%, QoQ +11.5%), Operating Profit at KRW 6.997 Trillion (turning profitable YoY, QoQ +28.0%), and Net Profit at KRW 4.692 Trillion (turning profitable YoY, QoQ +13.9%).
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q24 Segment Breakdown:
- DRAM Segment: Revenue reached KRW 10.8 Trillion (QoQ +42%) and Operating Profit posted KRW 4.6 Trillion (QoQ +32%, OPM 43%). Fueled by 8-high HBM3E shipments and a +15% QoQ rise in DRAM ASP, operating margin expanded by 12%p QoQ. Bit Growth recorded +22% QoQ.
- NAND Segment: Revenue recorded KRW 5.1 Trillion (QoQ +16%) and Operating Profit reached KRW 0.8 Trillion (QoQ +49%). Driven by surging high-capacity eSSD mix and an +18% QoQ rise in ASP, NAND successfully turned profitable even before factoring in inventory valuation reversals (~KRW 300 Billion). Bit Growth recorded -3% QoQ.
- 2H24 & 2025 Outlook:
- 3Q24 Outlook: DRAM revenue expected at KRW 12.6 Trillion (QoQ +16%) and operating profit at KRW 6.0 Trillion (QoQ +16%) driven by ASP gains and expanding HBM share (DRAM Bit Growth +3%, ASP +12%). NAND operating margin projected to reach 19% (+2%p QoQ) on eSSD sales growth (NAND Bit Growth -5%, ASP +8%).
- 12-High HBM3E Timeline: Mass production preparation in 3Q24 leading to commercial shipments in 4Q24 is progressing smoothly. With a ~20% price premium over 8-high, expanding 12-high shipments will serve as a key catalyst for DRAM ASP growth in 2025.
- Commodity DRAM Market Conditions: Tight commodity DRAM supply conditions, combined with continued IT demand growth, could provide further upside to conventional DRAM profitability.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix not as a cyclical memory maker vulnerable to commodity swings, but as an indispensable AI memory leader that has delivered record-breaking revenue and superior profitability through high-value product execution in HBM3E and enterprise SSDs. Greater weight is placed on the upcoming 4Q24 12-high HBM3E commercialization and structural earnings expansion into 2025 rather than near-term quarterly fluctuations.
To assess whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include fulfilling the 3Q24 guidance (Revenue KRW 18.31 Trillion, Operating Profit ~KRW 7.0 Trillion), smooth execution of 12-high HBM3E production and shipments in 4Q24, and whether expanding 12-high HBM3E sales drive further upside in DRAM ASP and company-wide operating margins through 2025. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR materials, DART/KRX filings, and regular financial statements.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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