Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Hanwha Investment & Securities
Analyst : Kwang-jin Kim (RA: Young-joo Choi)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 197,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Solid market position backed by initial HBM3E shipments for H200 and upwardly revised memory price forecasts drive 2024 operating profit projections to KRW 12.7 Trillion.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 197,000 (Raised by +17% from KRW 168,000). Applied Target P/B raised from 2.0x to 2.3x (a 15% premium to historical P/B Band upper bound).
- 2024 Annual Forecasts:
- Revenue: KRW 58.93 Trillion (+80% YoY)
- Operating Profit: KRW 12.70 Trillion (Turnaround to Profit, revised up from KRW 9.6 Trillion, OPM 22%)
- Net Profit (Controlling Interest): KRW 9.16 Trillion (Turnaround to Profit)
- EPS: KRW 13,303
- 2025 Annual Forecasts:
- Revenue: KRW 70.50 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 16.56 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 11.76 Trillion (EPS KRW 17,133)
- Key Valuation Multiples (2024F): ROE 15.8%, PER 12.8x, PBR 2.0x, EV/EBITDA 5.6x, Net Debt KRW 14.14 Trillion
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Q1 2024 Earnings Outlook (Beating Market Expectations):
- Q1 Revenue is projected at KRW 11.9 Trillion (+5% QoQ) and Operating Profit at KRW 1.6 Trillion (+364% QoQ), exceeding market consensus.
- Profit-first conservative sales strategy leads to shipment declines (DRAM -15%, NAND -5% QoQ), while blended ASP surges (+19% for DRAM, +28% for NAND QoQ).
- DRAM and NAND operating profit margins estimated to improve to +29% and -10%, respectively.
- Upward Revision of 2024 Annual Price Forecasts:
- Reflecting a more favorable-than-expected demand environment, full-year price growth assumptions revised: DRAM from +45% to +53%, and NAND from +55% to +70%.
- HBM Market Position & Shipment Roadmap:
- HBM3E shipments for H200 scheduled to begin in late March.
- Impact of market share loss from new competitor entry is expected to remain minimal.
- Annual HBM revenue estimated at KRW 9 Trillion for 2024, with HBM3E mix projected to exceed 30% on expanding 2H supply.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix as a company set to maintain its solid market positioning—anchored by late-March HBM3E shipments for H200, an estimated KRW 9 Trillion in annual HBM revenue, and an HBM3E mix expanding to over 30%—outweighing concerns over competitor entry. The perspective highlights that sharp ASP increases across DRAM and NAND driven by a more favorable-than-expected demand environment and a profit-focused strategy reinforce the upward revisions to full-year earnings estimates.
To verify whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key parameters to monitor include whether the late-March HBM3E shipments successfully expand to exceed a 30% mix in the second half, and whether the revised annual ASP growth of +53% for DRAM and +70% for NAND materializes across subsequent quarterly results. These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and periodic financial reports.
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