Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Junseo Park
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 200,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Expanding non-IT product mix across automotive and AI server MLCCs, coupled with the 2Q shipment ramp of North American AI accelerator FC-BGA substrates, drives structural margin resilience and ASP defense.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price maintained at KRW 200,000
- Annual Earnings Forecasts (K-IFRS Consolidated, Net Profit for Controlling Interests):
- 2024A: Revenue KRW 10.294 Trillion / Operating Profit KRW 735 Billion / Net Profit KRW 679 Billion
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 10.992 Trillion / Operating Profit KRW 854 Billion / Net Profit KRW 703 Billion
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 11.701 Trillion / Operating Profit KRW 960 Billion / Net Profit KRW 790 Billion
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 12.774 Trillion / Operating Profit KRW 1.124 Trillion / Net Profit KRW 930 Billion
- Key Valuation Multiples (2024A → 2025F → 2026F → 2027F):
- PER: 14.1x → 13.5x → 12.0x → 10.2x
- PBR: 1.1x → 1.1x → 1.0x → 1.0x
- ROE: 8.2% → 7.8% → 8.3% → 9.1%
- EPS: KRW 8,752 → KRW 9,054 → KRW 10,177 → KRW 11,987
- Dividend Yield: 1.5% → 1.5% → 1.5% → 1.5%
- Quarterly Performance & Outlook:
- 1Q25 Review: Revenue KRW 2.74 Trillion (YoY +4.4%), Operating Profit KRW 200.6 Billion (YoY +11.4%), in line with consensus. Top-line growth was supported by pre-tariff inventory pull-ins; MLCC inventory remained stable at around 4 weeks.
- 2Q25 Preview: Projected Revenue of KRW 2.67 Trillion (YoY +3.6%), Operating Profit of KRW 216.4 Billion (YoY +4.0%, OPM 8.1%).
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Component (MLCC) High-Value Mix Acceleration:
- Rapidly expanding high-value automotive and industrial MLCCs to navigate consumer IT demand slowdowns. Non-IT revenue share is projected to match IT levels starting in 2Q25.
- Product mix shift toward high-capacity and high-voltage products supports ASP defense and strengthens overall margin structure.
- Accelerated ADAS adoption in China, leading to higher LiDAR penetration and more vehicle models equipped, drives automotive MLCC demand with strong direct leverage due to high regional revenue exposure.
- Package Substrate (FC-BGA) North American AI Accelerator Ramp:
- Overcoming 1Q25 seasonal softness in PC substrates, commercial shipments of FC-BGA substrates for North American AI accelerators ramp up in 2Q25.
- High-value AI accelerator substrate volume is expected to effectively offset legacy BGA weakness.
- Structural ASP Defense Countering Tariff/Price Pressures:
- While customer price reduction requests remain possible, high-spec MLCC portfolio expansion and new demand from AI accelerators and automotive electronics structurally reinforce ASP defense and sustainable earnings momentum.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electro-Mechanics not as a conventional hardware supplier vulnerable to consumer mobile IT volume fluctuations and customer price reduction pressures, but as an advanced electronic component maker structurally upgrading its earnings resilience via high-value automotive and AI server applications. Greater significance is attached to structural ASP defense powered by non-IT sales reaching parity with consumer IT and the 2Q commercial ramp of North American AI accelerator FC-BGA substrates rather than broad macro uncertainties.
To verify whether this investment thesis materializes going forward, investors should monitor whether the non-IT revenue share in the component division reaches parity with IT in 2Q25, whether AI accelerator FC-BGA shipments to North American customers drive tangible profitability gains in the package division, and whether rising ADAS penetration in China translates into sustained order growth for high-capacity automotive MLCCs. These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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