Brokerage : Hanwha Investment & Securities
Analyst : Junyoung Park (Analyst), Nau Kim (RA)
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 580,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Value recovery and earnings sustainability expected from enforceable 5-year LTAs covering 60–70% of Capa, industry-leading HBM4 pricing, and upcoming shareholder return details
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Stock & Valuation Indicators
- Current Price (as of 2026-07-30): KRW 207,000
- Target Price: KRW 580,000 (Upside: +180.2%)
- Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained)
- Target Price Methodology: Applied 7.4x 12MF P/E (average during previous server boom) to 12MF EPS of KRW 79,442
- Market Capitalization: KRW 1,210.18 Trillion
- Key Financial Forecasts (K-IFRS Consolidated)
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 32.73 Trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 33.62 Trillion, EPS KRW 5,433
- 2025: Revenue KRW 333.61 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 43.60 Trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 44.26 Trillion, EPS KRW 7,250
- 2026(E): Revenue KRW 735.21 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 390.45 Trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 350.92 Trillion, EPS KRW 58,837 (PER 3.5x, PBR 1.8x)
- 2027(E): Revenue KRW 966.69 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 574.05 Trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 518.42 Trillion, EPS KRW 86,889 (PER 2.4x, PBR 1.1x)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Earnings Review
- Consolidated Q2 Revenue reached KRW 171.5 Trillion (QoQ +28%, YoY +130%), and Operating Profit stood at KRW 89.5 Trillion (QoQ +56%, YoY +1,788%), renewing record quarterly performance
- LTA Framework & Market Balance
- LTA coverage is expected to expand to at least 60–70% of total manufacturing capacity in the near term
- Standard LTA terms feature a 5-year duration and an upfront deposit (advance payment) structure covering a portion of the contract value
- If a customer cancels an ongoing agreement, contract terms typically require penalties corresponding to the full five-year commitment, serving as a binding mechanism to resolve duplicate bookings and maintain tight supply conditions
- HBM4 Pricing Power & Earnings Upside
- Currently negotiating 2027 HBM pricing; top-tier HBM4 pricing anticipated based on industry-leading speeds of 11.7Gbps
- Due to a dominant HBM4 product mix, 2027 HBM blended ASP is projected to increase over 50% YoY, driving additional operational upside
- Specifics on shareholder return policies are expected to be disclosed in the near term
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst evaluates Samsung Electronics as a business poised to normalize its corporate valuation and secure long-term earnings durability, moving past recent price corrections through structurally enforceable 5-year LTAs, top-tier HBM4 pricing, and upcoming shareholder returns. Rather than focusing on short-term market fluctuations, this perspective places greater weight on the operational stability provided by binding 60–70% of capacity under LTAs and the substantial earnings upside from a projected 50%+ YoY surge in 2027 HBM blended ASP.
To verify whether this investment thesis holds going forward, key tracking points include whether the expansion of 5-year LTAs covering 60–70% of total Capa with upfront deposit structures is fully executed, whether 2027 HBM4 negotiations yield industry-leading pricing that drives the projected blended ASP increase, and whether concrete shareholder return initiatives are officially unveiled and implemented. These developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and periodic regulatory filings.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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