Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Rokho Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 480,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Long-term earnings floor secured via 5-year LTAs with top data center clients, combined with foundry profitability improvements and upcoming 2027 HBM contract negotiations
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Stock & Valuation Indicators
- Current Price (as of 2026-07-30): KRW 207,000
- Target Price (12M): KRW 480,000
- Investment Rating: BUY (Maintained)
- Market Capitalization: KRW 1,210.18 Trillion (5,846,278,600 shares outstanding)
- 2026(F) Forward P/E: 4.34x, P/B: 1.83x
- 2027(F) Forward P/E: 2.99x, P/B: 1.15x
- Key Financial Forecasts (K-IFRS Consolidated)
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 32.73 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 33.62 Trillion, EPS KRW 4,950
- 2025: Revenue KRW 333.61 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 43.06 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 44.26 Trillion, EPS KRW 6,564
- 2026(F): Revenue KRW 727.34 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 392.13 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 318.22 Trillion, EPS KRW 47,704
- 2027(F): Revenue KRW 943.98 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 593.26 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 460.05 Trillion, EPS KRW 69,194
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Earnings Review
- Memory pricing strength: DRAM prices rose by 40% and NAND by over 60%, driving overall divisional performance
- Foundry division: Core operational losses narrowed after adjusting for bonus provisions
- Display division: Exceeded projections QoQ and YoY supported by solid North American smartphone client sales
- MX division: Recorded an operating loss of KRW 0.7 Trillion due to higher memory bill-of-materials costs
- 3Q26 Earnings Outlook
- Forecast Q3 Revenue of KRW 208 Trillion (+142% YoY, +21% QoQ) and Operating Profit of KRW 119 Trillion (+873% YoY, +33% QoQ)
- Favorable pricing expected across server DRAM, mobile DRAM, and eSSD driven by robust demand
- Foundry profitability expected to improve with the ramp-up of 4nm-based HBM base dies and LPU shipments to key customers
- Medium-to-Long Term LTA Structure & Visibility
- Completed 5-year LTAs with 5 major data center operators, with negotiations finalizing for 5 additional key customers
- Contract structures include price floors designed to preserve profitability even during industry down-cycles
- Long-term contracts target 60–70% of total capacity; 2027 HBM pricing negotiations present further upward estimate revisions
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst evaluates Samsung Electronics as a business securing medium-to-long term earnings stability by locking in 5-year LTAs with price floor provisions covering 60–70% of capacity, rather than relying solely on spot price upside. Rather than focusing on near-term mobile component cost pressures, this perspective places greater weight on the narrowing of foundry losses via 4nm HBM base die and LPU commercialization, alongside future earnings upside from 2027 HBM price negotiations.
To verify whether this investment thesis holds going forward, key tracking points include whether 5-year LTA agreements with the additional five key customers are fully finalized with price-floor clauses, whether 4nm HBM base die and LPU volume production visibly improves foundry division earnings in Q3, and whether 2027 HBM contract negotiations lead to upward revisions in operating profit forecasts. These developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and periodic regulatory filings.
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