Brokerage : Hana Securities (Analyst: Rokho Kim, RA: Younggyu Kim)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 480,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Multi-year earnings and corporate value expansion driven by higher-than-expected DRAM ASPs led by AI-driven LPDDR, strengthening 2027 HBM4 pricing power, and substantial 2026 FCF-based shareholder return potential
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, Target Price upgraded to KRW 480,000 (Current price KRW 346,500 as of 2026.06.17)
- Earnings Forecast Summary:
- 2024A: Revenue KRW 300.9T, Operating Profit KRW 32.7T, Net Profit KRW 33.6T
- 2025A: Revenue KRW 333.6T, Operating Profit KRW 43.6T, Net Profit KRW 44.3T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 750.3T, Operating Profit KRW 397.0T, Net Profit KRW 317.8T
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 948.4T, Operating Profit KRW 573.0T (upgraded +8% vs. prior estimate), Net Profit KRW 461.5T
- Valuation Multiples & Financial Indicators:
- EPS: 2025A KRW 6,564 → 2026F KRW 47,646 → 2027F KRW 69,405
- PER: 2025A 18.3x → 2026F 7.3x → 2027F 5.0x
- PBR: 2025A 1.9x → 2026F 3.0x (BPS KRW 113,610) → 2027F 2.1x (BPS KRW 163,909)
- ROE: 2025A 10.8% → 2026F 54.5% → 2027F 50.7%
- EV/EBITDA: 2025A 7.7x → 2026F 4.2x → 2027F 2.5x
- DPS & Dividend Yield: 2026F DPS KRW 14,850 (Dividend Yield 4.3%), 2027F DPS KRW 22,038
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Earnings Preview:
- Consolidated revenue projected at KRW 179T (+140% YoY, +34% QoQ) and operating profit at KRW 92T (+1850% YoY, +61% QoQ).
- Robust earnings expected despite newly reflecting employee bonus provisions equivalent to ~10% of DS operating profit from 2Q26 through 4Q26.
- DRAM ASP outperformance is driven by resilient server/PC DRAM prices and strong demand for LPDDR adopted in AI CPUs led by Nvidia, offsetting seasonal and cost pressures in non-memory units.
- DRAM & HBM4 Pricing Outlook:
- Commodity DRAM: Continues to drive strong full-year corporate earnings throughout 2026 following gains in 2H25.
- 2027 HBM4 Dynamics: While 2026 HBM4 contribution narrowed due to customer product schedule adjustments, 2027 is expected to see HBM4 become the dominant mix, lifting blended ASP; surging commodity DRAM prices (~4x increase compared to 2H25) are anticipated to expand the upward pricing scope in 2027 HBM contract negotiations.
- FCF & Shareholder Return Framework:
- 2026 FCF is projected at approximately KRW 308.8T; allocating 50% toward shareholder returns represents ~KRW 153.2T (estimated at KRW 66.4T for treasury shares and KRW 77T for cash dividends).
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a company whose structural earnings capacity is advancing through higher commodity DRAM ASPs led by AI CPU-bound LPDDR demand and a strengthening product mix toward HBM4 in 2027, which outweighs quarterly DS bonus provisions (10% of DS operating profit) and non-memory cost burdens. This perspective places primary importance on the virtuous pricing cycle where surging commodity DRAM prices enhance leverage in 2027 HBM contract negotiations, alongside substantial capital return potential supported by projected 2026 FCF.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key tracking points include the ongoing price strength of LPDDR and commodity DRAM in 2H26, the volume expansion of HBM4 into 2027 and the resulting contract pricing terms, and the formal execution and details of shareholder return measures utilizing 50% of 2026 FCF. These developments can be confirmed through upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, periodic reports, and official company IR disclosures.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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