Brokerage : IBK Securities
Analyst : Woon-ho Kim, RA: Min-gu Kang
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 170,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Poised for stable earnings expansion in 2025 following 4Q seasonal pause, driven by rising Non-IT and server MLCC mix, new customer acquisitions, and resilient FC-BGA substrate volume.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / KRW 170,000 (Maintained; keeping target price unchanged while revising 2024F EPS from KRW 8,026 to KRW 7,573 and raising 2025F EPS from KRW 10,141 to KRW 10,748)
- Current Share Price (As of Oct 29, 2024): KRW 120,200
- Market Capitalization: KRW 9.15T
- Key Financial Metrics & Forecast:
- Revenue: 2023A KRW 8.91T → 2024F KRW 10.22T → 2025F KRW 11.79T → 2026F KRW 12.73T
- Operating Profit: 2023A KRW 639.0B → 2024F KRW 780.0B (OPM 7.6%) → 2025F KRW 1.04T (Table: KRW 1,038.0B, OPM 8.8%) → 2026F KRW 1.10T (OPM 8.7%)
- Net Profit (Controlling): 2023A KRW 423.0B → 2024F KRW 588.0B → 2025F KRW 834.0B → 2026F KRW 857.0B
- EPS: 2023A KRW 5,450 → 2024F KRW 7,573 (+38.9% YoY) → 2025F KRW 10,748 (+41.9% YoY) → 2026F KRW 11,050 (+2.8% YoY)
- PER: 2023A 28.1x → 2024F 16.0x → 2025F 11.3x → 2026F 11.0x
- PBR: 2023A 1.5x → 2024F 1.1x → 2025F 1.0x → 2026F 1.0x
- ROE: 2023A 5.5% → 2024F 7.2% → 2025F 9.4% → 2026F 9.0%
- Dividend Yield (2024F): 1.6%
- 3Q24 Earnings Review: Consolidated Revenue of KRW 2.6153T (+1.7% QoQ), Operating Profit of KRW 224.9B (+6.3% QoQ), improving slightly versus prior forecasts. QoQ revenue by division rose +11.8% in Package Solutions and +3.2% in Components, while Optics Solutions fell -5.8%. Operating profit across divisions excluding Optics expanded QoQ.
- 4Q24 Earnings Forecast: Projected Revenue of KRW 2.4001T (contracting QoQ vs 3Q’s KRW 2.6153T despite a textual typo in the report stating +4.1% QoQ), Operating Profit of KRW 166.3B (-26.0% QoQ). Seasonal softness will lower revenue and profit across divisions, led by Optics Solutions, though Package Solutions profit declines will be limited due to FC-BGA volume improvements.
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Component Division (MLCC): Revenue rose +3.2% QoQ in 3Q24. Non-IT MLCC revenue share (automotive and industrial) continues to climb, while server exposure within IT applications also trends higher.
- Package Substrate Division: Revenue increased +11.8% QoQ in 3Q24. Profit decline in 4Q24 is expected to remain limited due to solid FC-BGA volume improvement.
- Mid-to-Long Term Drivers: Long-term stable growth drivers are secured through increasing automotive revenue mix and ongoing new customer acquisitions.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electro-Mechanics not through the lens of a transient 4Q seasonal slowdown, but as an advanced electronics hardware manufacturer steadily securing long-term structural growth engines. Despite a seasonal pause in 4Q24, the investment thesis centers on the continuous rise of Non-IT (automotive/industrial) and server MLCC mix, new customer acquisitions, and resilient FC-BGA substrate shipments, which underpin strong visibility for 2025 operating profit rebounding past KRW 1.03T.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key tracking points include the attainment of the full-year 2025 operating profit forecast (KRW 1.038T), continuous expansion of Non-IT and server shares within MLCC sales, margin resilience in the Package division supported by FC-BGA volume delivery, and tangible customer diversification in automotive and AI applications. These developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly financial announcements, official company IR presentations, and regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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