Brokerage : Daishin Securities
Analyst : Kangho Park (kangho.park@daishin.com)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 2,800,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Full-scale earnings upward revisions and continuous record profitability driven by worsening supply shortages and price increases across AI server FC BGAs and high-end MLCCs
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / 6-Month Target Price KRW 2,800,000 (Raised) (Closing price KRW 1,828,000 as of July 6, 2026; upside potential 16.6%)
- Valuation Methodology: Applied upper-end average of 2027(E)–2028(E) EPS (reflecting valuation re-rating and premium)
- Annual Earnings Forecast Upgrades:
- 2026(E) EPS (Controlling) raised by +12.6% to KRW 18,213; Operating Profit raised by +12.6% to KRW 1.747 Trillion
- 2027(E) EPS (Controlling) raised by +27.1% to KRW 26,633; Operating Profit raised by +24.8% to KRW 2.605 Trillion
- Key Financial Metrics & Forecast:
- Revenue (KRW): 2024 KRW 10.294 Trillion → 2025 KRW 11.314 Trillion → 2026(E) KRW 13.452 Trillion → 2027(E) KRW 15.338 Trillion → 2028(E) KRW 17.010 Trillion
- Operating Profit (KRW): 2024 KRW 735.0 Billion → 2025 KRW 913.0 Billion → 2026(E) KRW 1.747 Trillion → 2027(E) KRW 2.605 Trillion → 2028(E) KRW 3.110 Trillion
- Net Profit (Controlling) (KRW): 2024 KRW 679.0 Billion → 2025 KRW 706.0 Billion → 2026(E) KRW 1.413 Trillion → 2027(E) KRW 2.067 Trillion → 2028(E) KRW 2.477 Trillion
- EPS (KRW): 2024 KRW 8,752 → 2025 KRW 9,099 → 2026(E) KRW 18,213 → 2027(E) KRW 26,633 → 2028(E) KRW 31,914
- Valuation Multiples (PER / PBR / ROE):
- 2024: PER 14.1x, PBR 1.1x, ROE 8.2%
- 2025: PER 28.0x, PBR 2.1x, ROE 7.7%
- 2026(E): PER 100.4x, PBR 12.9x, ROE 13.8%
- 2027(E): PER 68.6x, PBR 10.8x, ROE 17.1%
- 2028(E): PER 57.3x, PBR 9.0x, ROE 17.2%
- 2Q 2026 Forecast (2Q26):
- Revenue: KRW 3.275 Trillion (+17.7% YoY, +2.2% QoQ)
- Operating Profit: KRW 424.0 Billion (Daishin estimate, text cites KRW 423.9 Billion, +99.0% YoY, +51.1% QoQ, beating consensus of KRW 385.6 Billion by +9.9%)
- Net Profit: KRW 341.0 Billion (+163.2% YoY, +37.0% QoQ)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- FC BGA Segment:
- Revenue Expansion: Server-driven revenue projected at KRW 2.0 Trillion in 2026 (+71.2% YoY) and KRW 2.57 Trillion in 2027 (+28.5% YoY).
- Supply Bottlenecks & Product Mix: Rising blended ASP reflecting acute supply shortages. Lines reaching full capacity in 4Q26; with no additional output in 2027, product mix optimization toward high-end servers will maximize profitability.
- Client-Supported CapEx: Large-scale investments targeting 1H 2028 operations are expected to proceed in 2H 2026 with funding and agreements from global Big Tech clients.
- MLCC Segment:
- Duopoly Advantage: High-end server MLCC supply is essentially limited to Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics, leading to expanding order backlogs (such as the KRW 454.0 Billion contract on June 29).
- Profitability & Next-Gen Components: Fab utilization remains near 95% across Korea and Japan, with potential for further price increases. Full commercialization of silicon capacitors in 2027 will provide additional upside.
- Profit Margin Expansion & Quarterly Outlook:
- Operating profit projected at KRW 513.1 Billion in 3Q26 and KRW 528.0 Billion in 4Q26, continually setting new quarterly records.
- Consolidated OPM forecast to surge from 8.1% in 2025 to 13% in 2026, 17% in 2027, and 18.3% in 2028.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electro-Mechanics not merely as a passive component supplier affected by consumer IT demand cycles, but as an essential high-value hardware platform solidifying a global duopolistic supply status in AI server FC BGAs and high-end MLCCs. Rather than being constrained by short-term valuation multiples, this perspective focuses on the structural acceleration of earnings estimates driven by firm pricing power and high-margin product mix transitions within a capacity-constrained environment.
To assess whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key verification checkpoints include delivering consensus-beating operating profits in 2Q26 (~KRW 424 Billion), surpassing KRW 500 Billion in quarterly operating profit in 3Q/4Q26 alongside 4Q26 FC BGA full capacity utilization, formalizing Big Tech co-funded expansion plans in 2H26, and tracking the revenue contribution of silicon capacitors in 2027. Progress on these fronts can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official investor relations disclosures, and periodic regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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