- Source Facts: iM Securities Research Division (Based on the report published on July 3, 2026)
- Investment Opinion & Target Price: BUY Maintained / Target Price Maintained at KRW 480,000
- Key Momentum: Upward revisions of consolidated earnings forecasts driven by expanding growth in DRAM and NAND Average Selling Prices (ASP).
๐ 1. [Valuation Metrics and Investment Indicator Analysis]
Key Investment & Valuation Architecture (Focusing on FY26 Forecasts)
- Target Price Rationale: Derived based on an estimated FY26 BPS of KRW 102,665, which reflects the new compensation framework, and a projected ROE of 48.8% that surpasses historical boom-cycle peaks. From a conservative approach, a target P/B multiple of 4.7x was applied to generate the KRW 480,000 valuation, with the mid-term trajectory heavily dependent on the sustainability of memory pricing into CY27.
- Valuation Multiples: For FY26, the forecasted P/E ratio stands at 7.8x (7.1x on a condensed financial table basis) and the P/B ratio is at 3.1x (2.8x on a condensed financial table basis).
- Financial Ratios: The consolidated operating profit margin for FY26 is expected to hit 49.4%, showing immense margin expansion, while the debt-to-equity ratio remains highly sound at 21.5% with a net debt ratio of -36.1%.
Annual Earnings Forecast Trends
- Revenue: KRW 333,606 billion in 2025 $\rightarrow$ KRW 728,120 billion in 2026E $\rightarrow$ KRW 800,730 billion in 2027E
- Operating Profit: KRW 43,601 billion in 2025 $\rightarrow$ KRW 359,575 billion in 2026E $\rightarrow$ KRW 428,455 billion in 2027E
- Net Profit (Controlling Interest): KRW 44,261 billion in 2025 $\rightarrow$ KRW 272,176 billion in 2026E $\rightarrow$ KRW 330,592 billion in 2027E
๐ 2. [Market Opportunity (TAM) and Detailed Earnings Estimates]
Quarterly Financial Performance and Business Unit Dynamics
- Q2 Consolidated Earnings Outlook: The ์ ์ฌ (company-wide) operating profit for 2Q26 is projected at KRW 80,042 billion (approximately KRW 80.0 trillion on a forecast basis), absorbing the lump-sum reflection of employee incentive-related provisions.
- Segment Performance Breakdowns:
- Memory Semiconductor (DS Segment): During 2Q26, the DRAM blended ASP is estimated to have gained over 40%, and the NAND ASP surged in the mid-60% range, steering an estimated KRW 79.2 trillion in operating profit within the memory unit. For 3Q26, additional price increases of 15โ20% for both segments are highly probable. The non-memory division is also expected to chart narrower operating losses on the back of foundry improvements.
- SDC and MX/Network: Conversely, the Display (SDC) and Mobile/Network (MX/NW) divisions are anticipated to see compressed operating profits of KRW 0.2 trillion (215 billion) and KRW 1.0 trillion (853 billion) respectively for 2Q26, impacted by the cost headwinds stemming from soaring memory prices.
Mid-to-Long-Term Market Framework and Supply Elasticity
- Industry Supply Constraints: Looking further into the cycle, the global DRAM industry’s bit growth is expected to decelerate from 25% this year to below 20% in 2027, severely limiting excess supply expansion.
- Demand Momentum: Major global big tech firms are aggressively sustaining infrastructure allocations into data centers by securing liquidity through alternative channels such as seasoned equity offerings, SPVs, and joint ventures, establishing a structural framework that could extend the memory sector’s upcycle through 2027.
๐ Editor Comment
The upward adjustment in Samsung Electronics’ performance guidance clearly demonstrates how a steep elevation in core memory ASP alters the consolidated corporate margin architecture. The internal friction between business components is notable here: while soaring component costs temporarily weigh down downstream units like mobile (MX), the sheer profitability of the DS division easily overrides these internal headwinds. Looking forward, the anticipated supply bit growth reduction by 2027 combined with resilient cloud service capital expenditures via diversified financing vehicles provides a robust buffer against standard downcycle risks. Short-term market corrections may materialize, yet as long as cross-industry high-margin pricing power and supply-side constraints hold firm, the structural mid-term fundamental thesis remains intact.
๐ข Disclaimer and Source
Source
This content has been newly structured and written based on financial facts and numerical data from officially disclosed securities analysis reports.
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