Kiwoom Securities (039490): Retaining Market Dominance via Evolving Policy Landscape and Shareholder Return Appeal

• Source Facts: Mirae Asset Securities Research Center (Based on the report published on July 3, 2026)
• Investment Opinion & Target Price: BUY Maintained / Raised to KRW 550,000
• Key Momentum: Quarterly earnings projected to significantly beat market consensus, coupled with mid-to-long-term market framework changes driving a potential recovery in market share.

📊 1. [Valuation Metrics and Investment Indicator Analysis]

Key Investment & Valuation Metrics (Focusing on 2026 Forecasts)

• Target Price Derivation: Based on the 2026F BPS estimate of KRW 292,661 and a target P/B of 1.88x, the target price has been adjusted upward from the previous KRW 516,000 to KRW 550,000. This adjustment aligns with the upward revision of the 2026 expected Dividend Per Share (DPS) from KRW 15,500 to KRW 16,500.
• Valuation Multiples: For 2026F, the P/E ratio stands at 5.1x and the P/B ratio at 1.10x.
• Profitability & Shareholder Return Indicators:
  • 2026F ROE (Return on Equity) is projected to remain robust at 23.2%.
  • Under the corporate value-up initiatives aiming to fulfill high-dividend corporate criteria, the 2026 payout ratio is estimated at 25.2%, resulting in an expected dividend yield of 6.4%.

Financial Performance Forecast Trends

• Operating Profit Trend: Solid growth momentum is anticipated, moving from KRW 1,098 billion in 2024 to KRW 1,488 billion in 2025, and reaching KRW 2,164 billion in 2026F.
• Net Profit (Controlling Interest): Projected to expand from KRW 1,114 billion in 2025 to KRW 1,672 billion in 2026F, before normalizing to KRW 1,131 billion in 2027F.

🚀 2. [Market Opportunity (TAM) and Detailed Earnings Estimates]

Quarterly Performance and Short-Term Momentum

• Q2 Earnings Outlook: Net profit attributable to controlling interests for Q2 is estimated at KRW 531.1 billion, exceeding the market consensus of KRW 410.9 billion by approximately 29.3%. This reflects an 11.5% sequential growth compared to the previous quarter.
• Drivers of Performance: Amid a market rally led largely by the semiconductor sector, trading and product gains improved (estimated at KRW 251 billion on a consolidated basis for 2Q26F), while overall market turnover expansion drove net fee and commission income (estimated at KRW 456 billion on a consolidated basis for 2Q26F) higher quarter-on-quarter.

Mid-to-Long-Term Market Dynamics and Retail Share

• Market Share Environment: Due to the KOSPI-centric market rally since last year, the company’s retail trading market share and margin loan balance market share have experienced downward pressure.
• Policy-Driven Opportunities: The government’s ongoing initiatives to revitalize the KOSDAQ market—comprising the segmentation of KOSDAQ tiers, the development of linked indices, and the fostering of a favorable liquidity environment—mirror the early stages of KOSPI policy benefits seen last year. These measures are anticipated to enhance market appeal and stimulate new capital inflows, creating a runway for a recovery in retail market share.

📝 Editor Comment

Kiwoom Securities’ short-term earnings surprise highlights its capacity to capture profits during periods of expanding market turnover and resilient trading conditions. However, from a macro perspective, the visibility of its shareholder return framework and mid-to-long-term regulatory tailwinds warrant closer attention. The commitment to maintaining a capital management strategy that meets high-dividend criteria provides a strong valuation floor. Furthermore, structural shifts aimed at boosting the KOSDAQ ecosystem—via tier segmentation and dedicated index tracking—could serve as a major catalyst for a firm that historically commands unparalleled retail leverage, paving the way for a structural turnaround in market positioning.

📢 Disclaimer and Source

Source

This content has been newly structured and written based on financial facts and numerical data from officially disclosed securities analysis reports.

Investment Risk Notice

This content is provided solely for informational and linguistic reference purposes. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific financial instruments. All investment decisions and financial liabilities rest entirely with the individual investor.

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