Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : DS Investment & Securities
Analyst : Surim Lee, Jinyoung Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 290,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Supported by expected in-line 4Q24 results, earnings stability and valuation upside will strengthen as HBM revenue share reaches 44% of DRAM in 2025 alongside entry into the custom memory market via HBM4 on TSMC foundries.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Stock Price & Target Price: Current Price (01/09) KRW 205,000, Target Price KRW 290,000 (Maintained), Upside Potential 41.5%, Investment Rating BUY (Maintained)
- Market Cap & Supply Metrics: Market Capitalization (Common) KRW 149.240 trillion, Par Value KRW 5,000, Total Shares Outstanding 728,002 thousand, Capital KRW 3.658 trillion, 52-Week High/Low KRW 248,500 / KRW 129,000, Foreign Ownership 55.0%
- Key Financial Projections (K-IFRS Consolidated):
- 2024F Revenue: KRW 66.360 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 23.575 trillion, Pre-tax Profit: KRW 21.748 trillion, Net Income Attributable to Shareholders: KRW 17.091 trillion (EPS: KRW 23,477, Turned to Profit)
- 2025F Revenue: KRW 84.043 trillion, Operating Profit: KRW 33.614 trillion (~KRW 33.6 trillion in text, +42.6% YoY, OPM 40.0%), Pre-tax Profit: KRW 31.452 trillion, Net Income Attributable to Shareholders: KRW 24.135 trillion (EPS: KRW 33,153, YoY Growth: 41.2%)
- Valuation & Financial Metrics:
- 2024F: P/E 8.7x, P/B 2.1x, EV/EBITDA 3.9x, ROE 27.8%, Operating Margin 35.5%
- 2025F: P/E 6.2x, P/B 1.6x, EV/EBITDA 2.7x, ROE 29.7%, Operating Margin 40.0%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 4Q24 Preview: Revenue is projected at KRW 19.9 trillion (+13.4% QoQ, +76.3% YoY) and operating profit at KRW 8.2 trillion (+16.5% QoQ, +2,267.1% YoY, OPM 41.1%), meeting market consensus.
- 4Q24 Divisional Breakdown:
- DRAM: Bit growth of +6% and ASP increase of +6% expected. Despite legacy weakness, premium HBM demand will lift HBM revenue share to 42% of total DRAM sales in 4Q (full-year 2024 estimated at 20% of company revenue and 30% of DRAM revenue).
- NAND: Bit growth of +8% and ASP drop of -6% expected.
- Custom Memory Market Entry & Roadmap: To meet Rubin demand, HBM4 mass production will commence in 2H25 with supply expansion in 1H26. Utilizing TSMC’s foundry process for HBM4 base dies positions the company favorably to secure diverse Big Tech customers beyond its anchor client.
- Enhanced 2025 Earnings Stability: HBM revenue is forecast to account for 44% of DRAM sales in 2025, lifting total operating profit to KRW 33.6 trillion (+42.6% YoY) despite NAND softness and sustaining peer-leading profit stability.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst evaluates SK hynix as the most resilient DRAM supplier delivering structural profit stability anchored by solid HBM leadership, despite legacy DRAM price softness and a broader NAND slowdown. The perspective emphasizes the expanding HBM revenue mix (44% of DRAM in 2025) and dominant positioning in the opening custom memory era—leveraging TSMC foundries for HBM4 to capture Big Tech demand—over cyclical commoditized headwinds.
To determine whether this investment thesis is actually playing out, investors should closely monitor whether 4Q24 operating profit hits the KRW 8.2 trillion estimate with HBM reaching 42% of DRAM revenue, the timely initiation of Rubin-oriented HBM4 mass production in 2H25, and customer design wins for TSMC-based custom HBM across global Big Tech clients. These operational milestones can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR materials, and periodic regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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