Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : IBK Securities
Analyst : Woon-ho Kim (RA Min-gu Kang)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 300,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Sustained 2025 earnings outperformance driven by aggressive 1b nm node migration and expanding HBM capacity, overcoming near-term headwinds from FX shifts and sluggish PC/mobile pricing
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price: KRW 300,000 (Maintained) / Base Share Price (2024-09-25): KRW 165,300 / Dividend Yield (2024F): 1.3%
- Earnings Forecast Revisions:
- 2024E EPS: Revised down from KRW 24,888 to KRW 21,337
- 2025E EPS: Revised slightly down from KRW 35,492 to KRW 35,210
- Financial Performance & Forecasts:
- 2022: Revenue KRW 44.62 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 6.81 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 2.23 Trillion
- 2023: Revenue KRW 32.77 Trillion, Operating Profit -KRW 7.73 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit -KRW 9.11 Trillion
- 2024(F): Revenue KRW 70.31 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 23.22 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 15.53 Trillion
- 2025(F): Revenue KRW 99.86 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 33.46 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 25.63 Trillion
- 2026(F): Revenue KRW 118.15 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 38.13 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 29.73 Trillion
- Valuation Multiples (2022 → 2023 → 2024F → 2025F → 2026F):
- EPS: KRW 3,063 → -KRW 12,517 → KRW 21,337 → KRW 35,210 → KRW 40,831
- PER: 24.5x → -11.3x → 7.7x → 4.6x → 4.0x
- PBR: 0.9x → 1.9x → 1.7x → 1.3x → 1.0x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.5x → 21.3x → 3.7x → 2.6x → 1.8x
- ROE: 3.6% → -15.6% → 25.4% → 31.8% → 28.0%
- Operating Margin: 15.3% → -23.6% → 33.0% → 33.5% → 32.3%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 3Q24 Earnings Forecast Adjustment:
- Consolidated Forecast: Revenue projected at KRW 19.51 Trillion (+18.8% QoQ) and Operating Profit at KRW 6.82 Trillion (+24.7% QoQ), adjusted downward from previous estimates.
- DRAM Segment: Revenue expected to grow +24.4% QoQ (estimated Bit Growth +3.0%, ASP +23% QoQ). Non-server demand softness caps bit volume growth, alongside higher manufacturing costs for HBM3e.
- NAND Segment: Revenue expected to remain flat QoQ (estimated Bit Growth -5.0%, ASP +10% QoQ).
- Revision Drivers: Revised USD/KRW exchange rate assumptions, softer PC/mobile DRAM pricing, and initial cost burdens associated with HBM3e.
- HBM CapEx Expansion & 1b nm Migration:
- 2024 tangible asset investments will significantly exceed last year’s level to fund HBM line expansions and prepare for 2025 demand.
- 1b nm production capacity dedicated to HBM3e is projected to expand from 20K/month at year-end 2023 to 80K/month by year-end 2024, and reach ~120K/month by year-end 2025.
- Total HBM shipments are forecasted to double from 6.0 billion Gb in 2024 to 12.0 billion Gb in 2025.
- Valuation & Medium-Term Thesis:
- The recent share price correction reflects excessive market pessimism regarding AI growth. SK hynix is expected to sustain clear differentiation in Bit Growth and ASP against peers, maintaining long-term earnings expansion into 2025.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix not as a commoditized supplier whose long-term growth is impaired by FX fluctuations or temporary price lulls in consumer electronics, but as a dominant AI memory leader aggressively expanding 1b nm advanced capacity to secure volume leadership and satisfy surging multi-year HBM demand. Greater significance is attached to doubling HBM shipments to 12.0 billion Gb in 2025 and disciplined leading-edge capacity expansion rather than near-term margin friction caused by initial HBM3e ramp-up costs.
To assess whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include achieving the revised 3Q24 operating profit of KRW 6.82 Trillion, meeting the planned 1b nm capacity milestones (80K/month by end-2024 and 120K/month by end-2025), and confirming whether 2025 HBM shipments reach the targeted 12.0 billion Gb volume. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR materials, DART/KRX filings, and regular financial statements.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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