Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Jun-seo Park
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 190,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Expanding high-capacitance MLCC adoption across on-device AI smartphones and xEVs, coupled with rising capacity utilization and favorable export trends, is projected to accelerate earnings growth.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Target Price & Rating: Target Price maintained at KRW 190,000, Rating maintained at BUY
- Stock Data (As of April 1, 2024): Current Price KRW 153,900, Market Capitalization KRW 11.50 Trillion, Foreign Ownership 31.4%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2023 → 2024F → 2025F):
- Revenue: KRW 8.91 Trillion → KRW 9.62 Trillion → KRW 10.34 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW 639.0 Billion → KRW 836.0 Billion → KRW 1.01 Trillion
- Net Profit (Controlling): KRW 423.0 Billion → KRW 596.0 Billion → KRW 722.0 Billion
- EPS: KRW 5,450 → KRW 7,682 → KRW 9,301 (2024F EPS Growth: 40.9%)
- PER / PBR: 28.1x / 1.5x → 20.0x / 1.4x → 16.5x / 1.3x
- Operating Margin: 7.2% → 8.7% → 9.7%
- ROE: 5.5% → 7.3% → 8.3%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Q1 2024 Outlook & Forecast Upward Revision:
- Consolidated revenue forecast at KRW 2.45 Trillion (+6.2% YoY) and operating profit at KRW 180.7 Billion (+29.0% YoY), raised by +14% compared to previous estimates and beating consensus by 8%.
- Growth supported by AI smartphone launches, solid Galaxy S24 sales, and robust xEV demand, driving IT MLCC volume (Q, +8% QoQ) and pricing (P, +2% QoQ) expansion.
- Utilization Recovery & Content Density Gains:
- Component division capacity utilization is projected to improve steadily: 1Q24 77% → 2Q24 81% → 3Q24 83%.
- High-performance AP transitions (Snapdragon Gen2 → Gen3 → Gen4) are estimated to increase smartphone MLCC capacitance by ~8% per generation.
- Resilient xEV/PHEV growth offsets BEV slowdown, with Level 2+ PHEV MLCC content matching BEV levels.
- Global Export Data & Inventory Normalization:
- Chinese handset inventory destocking concluded, supported by March China Manufacturing PMI at 50.8.
- Recovery in global MLCC export metrics: Japan February MLCC exports at JPY 49.0 Billion (+32.4% YoY) and Philippines January MLCC exports at USD 85.63 Million (+47.7% MoM).
- Robust structural tailwinds across AI servers (content +2–3x), AI smartphones (capacitance +8%), and AI PCs (capacitance +50%).
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electro-Mechanics not merely as a commoditized hardware supplier bound to general consumer electronic cycles, but as a primary enabler benefiting from simultaneous volume (Q) and price (P) expansion driven by higher AP performance and MLCC density in on-device AI smartphones and electrified vehicles (xEV/PHEV). The overarching perspective places greater significance on the structural increase in component content per box, normalized channel inventory in China, and continuous utilization recovery (77% in Q1 to 83% in Q3) than on headline smartphone shipment growth.
To assess the progression of this investment thesis moving forward, verification should focus on whether Q1 operating profit confirms the upward revision toward KRW 180.7 Billion, whether Component division capacity utilization advances toward the 83% level by Q3, and whether expanding AI smartphone launches in China continue to support global MLCC export momentum. These operational developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly financial announcements, official investor relations presentations, and periodic regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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