Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Eugene Investment & Securities
Analyst : Seung-woo Lee
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 180,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Substantial expansion in total HBM market supply and dominant positioning in HBM3/3E drive upward revisions to 2024 and 2025 operating profit forecasts.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 180,000 (Raised by 16% from KRW 155,000). Derived by averaging a Target P/E of 16x and a Target P/B of 2.0x based on 2024F earnings estimates.
- 2024 Annual Forecasts:
- Revenue: KRW 56.03 Trillion (+71.0% YoY)
- Operating Profit: KRW 11.99 Trillion (Turnaround to Profit, revised up by 19% from KRW 10.0 Trillion, OPM 21.4%)
- Net Profit: KRW 8.67 Trillion (Turnaround to Profit)
- EPS: KRW 11,899 (Turnaround to Profit)
- 2025 Annual Forecasts:
- Revenue: KRW 65.02 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 16.64 Trillion (revised up by 10% from KRW 15.3 Trillion), Net Profit KRW 11.80 Trillion (EPS KRW 16,181)
- Key Valuation Multiples (2024F): ROE 15.1%, PER 13.6x, PBR 1.9x, EV/EBITDA 5.1x, Dividend Yield 0.9%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- HBM Market Expansion:
- Driven by soaring demand for AI training GPUs and expanding per-unit HBM capacity, total industry HBM bit supply is projected to surge from roughly 350–400 million GB in 2023 to 1.2 billion GB or higher in 2024.
- Supply Chain Differentiation & Competitive Environment:
- In the wake of generative AI expansion, performance and share price differentiation continue between companies included within NVIDIA’s supply chain and those outside it.
- With trailing competitors’ HBM3 execution falling short of market expectations from three months prior, SK hynix continues to benefit as the dominant supplier in HBM3 and 3E.
- Upward Operating Profit Revisions:
- Full-year operating profit projections raised to KRW 12.0 Trillion (+19% from previous) for 2024 and KRW 16.6 Trillion (+10% from previous) for 2025.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix as a primary beneficiary maintaining its dominant supply leadership in HBM3 and 3E—aided by competitor achievements falling short of prior market expectations—and realizing differentiated earnings growth within the AI supply chain. The perspective highlights that explosive growth in total HBM volume alongside the company’s leading market position underpins the upward revisions to annual earnings forecasts and valuation metrics.
To verify whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key parameters to monitor include whether the dominant supply leadership in HBM3 and 3E persists within the total HBM market projected to reach 1.2 billion GB or more in 2024, and whether the upwardly revised annual operating profit targets (KRW 12.0 Trillion in 2024 and KRW 16.6 Trillion in 2025) materialize across subsequent quarterly results. These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and periodic regulatory filings.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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