Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Younggun Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 550,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Upside potential driven by expected massive special dividends from the 2024–2026 FCF settlement, mid-to-long term shareholder return expansion backed by robust FCF generation, and deeply undervalued multiples.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained with a Target Price of KRW 550,000 (73.5% upside potential from May 29, 2026 closing price of KRW 317,000)
- Valuation Multiples:
- Target Price is derived by applying a 2026F P/E multiple of 12.0x
- Current share price implies a 2026F P/E of 6.9x and P/B of 2.8x (2027F P/E 5.0x, P/B 1.9x), representing an absolute undervaluation against fundamental growth
- Key Financial Metrics & Forecasts (2024 ~ 2028F):
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87T, OP KRW 32.73T, Net Profit KRW 33.62T, EPS KRW 4,950, ROE 9.0%, P/E 10.7x, P/B 0.9x, Div. Yield 2.7%
- 2025: Revenue KRW 333.61T, OP KRW 43.60T, Net Profit KRW 44.26T, EPS KRW 6,564, ROE 10.8%, P/E 18.3x, P/B 1.9x, Div. Yield 1.4%
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 708.85T, OP KRW 371.44T (vs. consensus KRW 351.66T), Net Profit KRW 305.78T, EPS KRW 45,841, ROE 52.7%, P/E 6.9x, P/B 2.8x, Div. Yield 3.7%
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 909.71T, OP KRW 499.53T, Net Profit KRW 424.79T, EPS KRW 63,891, ROE 46.8%, P/E 5.0x, P/B 1.9x, Div. Yield 5.2%
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 981.70T, OP KRW 512.10T, Net Profit KRW 460.68T, EPS KRW 69,289, ROE 36.7%, P/E 4.6x, P/B 1.5x, Div. Yield 5.5%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2024–2026 Shareholder Return Settlement & Special Dividend Expectations:
- Under the policy to return 50% of 3-year FCF (annual fixed dividend of KRW 9.8T with surplus distributed as special dividend), significant special dividends are anticipated as cumulative FCF is projected to exceed targets.
- Assuming a minimum payout ratio of 25% for dividend income separate taxation, scenario analysis (100% cash vs. 30% buyback/cancellation + 70% cash, including/excluding M&A) yields estimated dividend yields of 3.7–6.5% for common shares and 5.8–10.1% for preferred shares.
- Preferred shares trade at a 36% discount to common shares, wider than the historical average of 22%, presenting room for discount contraction ahead of the March 2027 special dividend resolution.
- Long-term FCF Surge & Upward Revision of Return Policy:
- Past fixed dividends (KRW 9.6–9.8T annually) assumed a 3-year cumulative FCF of KRW 60T; however, with annual FCF projected to exceed KRW 200T starting in 2026, the fixed dividend amount or the 50% FCF return ratio could be revised upward.
- Earnings Forecasts:
- 2Q26F Operating Profit estimated at KRW 89T (above market consensus of KRW 88T)
- 2026F Operating Profit estimated at KRW 371T (above market consensus of KRW 358T)
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics not merely as a business undergoing an earnings recovery, but as a premier cash-generating enterprise capable of delivering substantial shareholder returns through massive Free Cash Flow (FCF) expansion. This perspective places primary emphasis on the upcoming 2024–2026 shareholder return settlement and the high probability of an upgraded payout structure for future cycles as key catalysts for valuation re-rating.
To determine whether this investment thesis materializes, key verification checkpoints include the actual magnitude of annual FCF generation in 2026, the resolution of special dividends and share cancellations in March 2027, and the potential upward revision of base dividends or payout ratios in the subsequent 3-year shareholder return policy. These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly IR materials, annual business reports, and official regulatory filings on DART/KRX.
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