Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities (Analyst: Younggun Kim)
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 550,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Corporate value supported by industry-leading DRAM/NAND wafer capacity securing supply advantages, expansion of LTAs into Greater China, and the necessity of additional treasury share purchases for employee compensation
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: Buy maintained, Target Price maintained at KRW 550,000 (Current price KRW 340,500 as of 2026.06.24, upside potential 61.5%; Target P/E 11.7x and P/B 4.9x for 2026F reflect conservative levels below industry averages)
- Earnings Forecast Summary:
- 2024A: Revenue KRW 300.9T, Operating Profit KRW 32.7T, Net Profit (controlling interest) KRW 33.6T
- 2025A: Revenue KRW 333.6T, Operating Profit KRW 43.6T, Net Profit (controlling interest) KRW 44.3T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 732.4T, Operating Profit KRW 382.5T (exceeding consensus KRW 365.6T), Net Profit (controlling interest) KRW 314.9T
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 953.5T, Operating Profit KRW 543.5T, Net Profit (controlling interest) KRW 461.6T
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 1,031.4T, Operating Profit KRW 561.7T, Net Profit (controlling interest) KRW 504.7T
- Valuation Multiples & Financial Indicators:
- EPS: 2025A KRW 6,564 → 2026F KRW 47,205 → 2027F KRW 69,421 → 2028F KRW 75,907
- P/E: 2025A 18.3x → 2026F 7.2x (7.2x at current price) → 2027F 4.9x → 2028F 4.5x
- P/B: 2025A 1.9x → 2026F 3.0x (3.1x at current price) → 2027F 2.0x → 2028F 1.5x
- ROE: 2025A 10.8% → 2026F 53.9% → 2027F 49.3% → 2028F 38.1%
- Dividend Yield: 2025A 1.4% → 2026F 3.4% (projected at 3.6–6.0% for common and 6.0–9.6% for preferred shares under 50% FCF shareholder return) → 2027F 4.8% → 2028F 5.1%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Earnings Forecast Revision (Bonus Provisions):
- 2Q26F operating profit adjusted down to KRW 84.1T (-14% vs. prior KRW 97.7T) and FY26 operating profit revised to KRW 382.5T (-3% vs. prior KRW 395T).
- Rather than spreading unreflected 1Q bonus provisions across future quarters, full lump-sum recognition in 2Q is expected, with total provision size expanded to KRW 35T.
- Memory Price Momentum & Capacity Leadership:
- Pricing Dynamic: Following >50% ASP growth in 2Q26, potential exists for 3Q26 ASP increases to exceed 20% overall (current model reflects +10%).
- Capacity Share Expansion: 2027 projected DRAM/NAND wafer capacity reaches monthly averages of 790K/403K, expanding industry capacity share to 33.2%/27.5% from 32.9%/25.9% in 2026.
- LTA Expansion & Share Buyback Catalysts:
- LTA Broadening: With over 50% of industry volume committing to hyperscaler LTAs, the company’s maximum DRAM and NAND capacity enables extending LTAs from North American clients to Greater China customers.
- Treasury Share Buybacks: Holding KRW 28T in employee compensation treasury shares (purchased at KRW 183,000–196,000), additional share purchases are viewed as inevitable given the scale of bonus obligations.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a company leveraging its industry-leading DRAM and NAND production capacity to secure relative supply dominance and contract negotiation advantages during an extended memory price upcycle, which offsets lump-sum bonus provision burdens. This perspective places greater significance on the company’s expanding capacity market share into 2027 to broaden LTA commitments into Greater China and the necessity of additional treasury share repurchases for employee compensation, rather than near-term earnings adjustments.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key tracking points include whether 3Q26 DRAM and NAND ASP gains exceed the 20% level, the tangible progress of extending LTAs to North American and Greater China customers, and the official announcement and execution of additional treasury share purchases for employee bonus obligations. These developments can be confirmed through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, DART/KRX regulatory filings, and official company IR disclosures.
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