Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Younggun Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 550,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Comprehensive valuation re-rating expected as the company narrows its discount gap against global peers, powered by industry-leading capacity and internal vertical integration across HBM4 and next-generation memory products.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained; Target Price raised by +14.6% to KRW 550,000 from KRW 480,000 (83.9% upside potential based on May 26, 2026 closing price of KRW 299,000)
- Valuation Methodology: 12MF EV/EBITDA target multiple increased from 6.0x to 7.0x, aligning with the current trading average of global memory peers (Micron, Kioxia)
- Valuation Multiples: Current share price implies a 12MF P/B of 2.3x and P/E of 5.7x, substantially lower than the global peer averages of 6.2x and 10.1x, respectively
- Key Financial Metrics & Forecasts (2024 ~ 2028F):
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87T, OP KRW 32.73T, Net Profit KRW 33.62T, EPS KRW 4,950, ROE 9.0%, P/E 10.7x, P/B 0.9x, Div. Yield 2.7%
- 2025: Revenue KRW 333.61T, OP KRW 43.60T, Net Profit KRW 44.26T, EPS KRW 6,564, ROE 10.8%, P/E 18.3x, P/B 1.9x, Div. Yield 1.4%
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 708.85T, OP KRW 371.44T (vs. consensus KRW 351.61T), Net Profit KRW 327.72T, EPS KRW 49,128, ROE 55.5%, P/E 6.1x, P/B 2.6x, Div. Yield 3.9%
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 909.71T, OP KRW 499.53T, Net Profit KRW 448.04T, EPS KRW 67,388, ROE 47.6%, P/E 4.4x, P/B 1.7x, Div. Yield 5.5%
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 981.70T, OP KRW 512.10T, Net Profit KRW 469.13T, EPS KRW 70,561, ROE 35.9%, P/E 4.2x, P/B 1.3x, Div. Yield 5.9%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Structural Premium Catalysts & Peer Catch-Up:
- Maximum capacity market share (DRAM 33%, NAND 26%) enables unmatched operating leverage during peak super-cycle conditions
- Secured production yield and performance for next-generation products including HBM4 and SOCAMM2
- Full internal integration capability spanning DRAM, NAND flash, and foundry justifies a premium multiple over standalone memory peers
- Memory Supply-Demand Dynamics & Pricing Trajectory:
- Data center backlogs outpace Capex growth, accelerating long-term agreement (LTA) contracts for supply stability
- Structural undersupply across DRAM and NAND projected to persist through 2028, sustaining elevated pricing
- DRAM ASP Growth Forecasts: 2Q26F +41%, 2026F +260%, 2027F +14%
- NAND ASP Growth Forecasts: 2Q26F +45%, 2026F +235%, 2027F +16%
- Earnings Forecasts & Forward Expectations:
- Operating Profit estimates: 2Q26F KRW 89T, 2026F KRW 371T, 2027F KRW 500T
- Advancing into 2H26, valuation baseline adjustments are expected to reflect 2027 earnings expansion along with growing 3-year shareholder return expectations
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a premium integrated semiconductor leader warranting structural valuation re-rating, rather than a cyclical player tethered to historical domestic discounts. This perspective places primary weight on the company’s operating leverage from industry-leading capacity, full internal vertical integration (DRAM, Flash, Foundry), and the high probability of narrowing its steep multiple discount relative to global peers.
To determine whether this investment thesis holds true over time, key verification checkpoints include the sustained quarterly ASP increases in DRAM and NAND amid projected structural shortages through 2028, yield execution and commercial shipments of advanced products like HBM4 and SOCAMM2, and the tangible convergence of its valuation multiples toward global peer benchmarks. These variables can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and regulatory disclosures on DART/KRX.
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