Brokerage : Hyundai Motor Securities
Analyst : Greg Noh (Analyst), Gayoung Yoon (RA)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 440,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Market share gains driven by HBM4 shipments to major accelerator clients alongside upward revisions in DRAM ASP and continued AIDC Capex expected from major CSPs
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Stock & Valuation Indicators
- Current Price (as of 2026-07-30): KRW 207,000
- 6-Month Target Price: KRW 440,000 (Upside: 112.6%)
- Investment Rating: BUY (Maintained)
- Valuation Methodology: Arithmetic average of 2026E P/E 10x and 2026E P/B 3x
- Market Capitalization: KRW 1,210.18 Trillion
- Key Financial Forecasts (K-IFRS Consolidated)
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 32.73 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 33.62 Trillion, EPS KRW 5,433
- 2025: Revenue KRW 333.61 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 43.60 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 44.26 Trillion, EPS KRW 7,241
- 2026(F): Revenue KRW 739.72 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 388.60 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 328.13 Trillion, EPS KRW 55,720 (P/E 3.7x, P/B 1.9x)
- 2027(F): Revenue KRW 1,069.35 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 589.81 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 503.08 Trillion, EPS KRW 85,821 (P/E 2.4x, P/B 1.1x)
- 2028(F): Revenue KRW 1,352.15 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 682.25 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 595.94 Trillion, EPS KRW 101,705 (P/E 2.0x, P/B 0.8x)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Q2 Results & Division Performance
- Q2 confirmed Revenue increased 28.1% QoQ to KRW 171.5 Trillion; Operating Profit reached KRW 89.5 Trillion
- Divisional Operating Profit: DS KRW 89.2 Trillion, SDC KRW 0.7 Trillion, Harman KRW 0.4 Trillion, MX/Network -KRW 0.7 Trillion, VD/Home Appliances -KRW 0.01 Trillion
- Q2 Capex execution stood at KRW 16.8 Trillion, with full-year 2026 Capex projected to exceed KRW 70 Trillion
- Q3 Upward Revisions & HBM Market Share
- DRAM ASP growth projection for Q3 revised upward to +20.1% QoQ driven by the start of full-scale HBM4 shipments
- Q3 Revenue and Operating Profit forecasts raised by 2.3% and 4.1% to KRW 209 Trillion and KRW 114 Trillion, respectively
- Rapid HBM market share gains anticipated through expanded revenue contributions to major accelerator vendors such as NVIDIA and AMD
- Industry Demand Drivers & Structural Shift
- Major North American CSPs (Google, Meta) expected to sustain Capex expansion to defend AI leadership, making near-term spending cuts unlikely
- Structural stability enhanced compared to the 2017–2018 cycle via 5-year CSP LTAs, buffer dynamics with accelerator partners, direct LLM AIDC investments, and customer diversification into Neo Cloud vendors
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst evaluates Samsung Electronics as a business entering a phase of accelerating earnings growth driven by the commercial rollout of HBM4 in Q3 and rapid market share gains across leading accelerator vendors, moving beyond recent macro concerns surrounding CSP free cash flow and price adjustments. Rather than focusing on short-term price resistance, this perspective places greater weight on the likelihood of sustained AIDC Capex from major CSPs, as well as the stabilizing impact of 5-year CSP LTAs and broader customer diversification across Neo Cloud and LLM players.
To verify whether this investment thesis holds going forward, key tracking points include whether the Q3 HBM4 ramp translates into confirmed volume shipments to NVIDIA and AMD resulting in tangible market share expansion, and whether upward-revised DRAM ASP gains materialize into the projected Q3 operating profit of KRW 114 Trillion. These developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR materials, and periodic regulatory filings.
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