Brokerage : SK Securities
Analyst : Hyoung-woo Park, Min-gyu Kwon
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 195,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Surging high-end MLCC content per unit across AI servers and autonomous vehicles, alongside high-value product mix optimization, is projected to accelerate the earnings upcycle.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Target Price & Rating: Target Price raised to KRW 195,000, Rating maintained at BUY
- Stock Data (As of April 29, 2024): Current Price KRW 151,300, Market Capitalization KRW 11.30 Trillion
- Key Financial Forecasts (2023 → 2024E → 2025E):
- Revenue: KRW 8.91 Trillion → KRW 10.04 Trillion → KRW 10.83 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW 639.0 Billion → KRW 892.0 Billion (+40%) → KRW 1.17 Trillion (+32%)
- Net Profit (Controlling): KRW 423.0 Billion → KRW 632.0 Billion → KRW 830.0 Billion
- EPS: KRW 5,552 → KRW 8,147 → KRW 10,695
- PER / PBR: 27.6x / 1.5x → 18.6x / 1.4x → 14.1x / 1.3x
- EV/EBITDA: 7.9x → 7.0x → 5.7x
- ROE: 5.5% → 7.8% → 9.5%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Q1 2024 Review & Q2 2024 Outlook:
- Q1 operating profit reached KRW 180.3 Billion (+29% YoY), beating consensus (KRW 171.3 Billion).
- Q1 MLCC shipments remained flat QoQ while prices rose ~4% QoQ; capacity conversion toward high-end lines supported a utilization rate rise to 80%.
- Q2 operating profit is forecast at KRW 211.9 Billion (+3% YoY), confirming a bottoming-out and recovery path.
- Portfolio Shift to AI, Servers, and Automotive:
- The share of smartphones within total MLCC revenue, previously 40–50%+, is projected to decline below 20% in specific quarters by 2025.
- Automotive MLCC: Revenue share has climbed to 23% on vehicle electrification and is expected to reach 30% by Q3 2025.
- Industrial/Server MLCC: AI accelerator adoption has boosted MLCC content per server by over 100%, with industrial MLCC share forecast to rise from 17% to over 20% by 2025.
- Demand Dynamics & Catalysts:
- On-device AI product rollouts by major North American tech giants in H2 2024 are expected to expand passive component content.
- Chinese MLCC shipments passed the trough in Q1 and are rebounding from Q2.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electro-Mechanics not merely as a commodity passive component supplier bound to consumer hardware shipment cycles, but as a structurally transitioning enabler capturing higher content per box across AI servers and autonomous vehicles. The overarching perspective places greater significance on the high-end product mix enrichment and the structural expansion of automotive and industrial revenue shares than on the sluggish volume recovery of general consumer electronics.
To evaluate the ongoing progression of this investment thesis, verification should center on whether the MLCC capacity utilization rate sustains at 80% or above on high-end demand, whether the automotive MLCC revenue share tracks toward the 30% mark by Q3 2025, and whether rising AI server adoption supports the trajectory toward KRW 1.17 Trillion in operating profit by 2025. These operational developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official investor relations materials, and periodic financial reports.
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