Brokerage : IBK Securities
Analyst : Un-ho Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 170,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Entering a stable earnings recovery phase in 1Q25 following 4Q24 seasonal destocking, supported by a rising Non-IT MLCC mix and ongoing expansion into new customer accounts.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / KRW 170,000 (Maintained)
- Current Share Price (As of Jan 24, 2025): KRW 128,100
- Market Capitalization: KRW 9.74T
- Key Financial Metrics & Forecast:
- Revenue: 2023A KRW 8.91T → 2024F KRW 10.29T → 2025F KRW 11.17T → 2026F KRW 12.05T
- Operating Profit: 2023A KRW 639.0B → 2024F KRW 735.0B (OPM 7.1%) → 2025F KRW 983.0B (OPM 8.8%) → 2026F KRW 1.07T (OPM 8.9%)
- Net Profit (Controlling): 2023A KRW 423.0B → 2024F KRW 649.0B → 2025F KRW 779.0B → 2026F KRW 815.0B
- EPS: 2023A KRW 5,450 → 2024F KRW 8,364 (+53.5% YoY) → 2025F KRW 10,042 (+20.1% YoY) → 2026F KRW 10,504 (+4.6% YoY)
- PER: 2023A 28.1x → 2024F 14.8x → 2025F 12.7x → 2026F 12.1x
- PBR: 2023A 1.5x → 2024F 1.1x → 2025F 1.1x → 2026F 1.0x
- ROE: 2023A 5.5% → 2024F 7.9% → 2025F 8.8% → 2026F 8.6%
- Dividend Yield (2024F): 1.7%
- 4Q24 Earnings Review: Revenue of KRW 2.49T (-4.7% QoQ), Operating Profit of KRW 115.0B (-48.7% QoQ). Revenue declined QoQ across all business divisions except Optics & Communication, while operating profit contracted due to fixed cost burdens stemming from lower fab utilization.
- 1Q25 Earnings Outlook: Projected Revenue of KRW 2.64T (+6.1% QoQ), Operating Profit of KRW 196.0B (+70.4% QoQ), with sequential recovery expected across non-package divisions.
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Component Division (MLCC): Non-IT MLCC revenue share continues its steady upward trajectory, supported by ongoing growth from new customer additions.
- Optics & Communication Division: Expected to post the strongest sequential revenue growth among all units in 1Q25, supported by client new product launch dynamics.
- Package Solution Division: Temporary sequential softness expected in 1Q25 due to lower FC-BGA sales, before seeking operational stabilization.
- Earnings Trajectory: Following 4Q24 seasonal destocking, financial performance is projected to enter a stable recovery trajectory starting in 1Q25.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electro-Mechanics not as a cyclical supplier hampered by temporary off-season destocking, but as a component maker establishing long-term earnings stability through a rising Non-IT MLCC mix and customer base diversification. The investment perspective looks past short-term 4Q fixed cost absorption, placing greater emphasis on the 1Q25 earnings turnaround and foundational growth driven by new accounts.
To assess whether this thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include whether 1Q25 operating profit achieves the projected sharp rebound (KRW 196.0B), whether the Non-IT MLCC portion continues its steady upward trend, and the tangible progression of new customer orders. These indicators can be tracked via future quarterly earnings announcements, official company IR releases, and regular regulatory filings.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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