Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Min-kyung Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 240,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Target price raised to KRW 240,000 driven by tight MLCC supply in industrial/automotive/AI segments, Non-IT MLCC revenue projected to overtake IT in 2026, and expanding high-value FCBGA supplies across multiple AI accelerator clients.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, 12-month Target Price raised to KRW 240,000 (41% upside potential), derived by applying a target P/B multiple of 1.88x (average P/B during the 2018 MLCC shortage) to the 2026 BPS forecast of KRW 127,491.
- Base Share Price (As of Sep 2, 2025): KRW 169,900 (Market Cap: KRW 12.69 Trillion, KOSPI: 3,172.35 pt, KOSPI Weight: 0.49%, Shares Outstanding: 74.69M, 60-Day Avg Volume: 421K shares, 60-Day Avg Turnover: KRW 61.7 Billion, Foreign Ownership: 35.60%, 52-Week High: KRW 169,900 / Low: KRW 105,600).
- Valuation Multiples & Trend:
- PER: 2023: 28.11x → 2024: 14.15x → 2025(E): 22.49x → 2026(E): 17.09x
- PBR: 2023: 1.49x → 2024: 1.08x → 2025(E): 1.42x → 2026(E): 1.33x
- EV/EBITDA: 2023: 7.82x → 2024: 5.87x → 2025(E): 7.32x → 2026(E): 6.44x
- ROE: 2023: 5.50% → 2024: 8.16% → 2025(E): 6.55% → 2026(E): 8.18%
- BPS: 2023: KRW 103,020 → 2024: KRW 115,152 → 2025(E): KRW 119,304 → 2026(E): KRW 127,491
- DPS: 2023: KRW 1,150 → 2024: KRW 1,800 → 2025(E): KRW 1,800 → 2026(E): KRW 1,800
- Earnings Forecast Summary:
- 2025(E): Revenue KRW 11.06 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 844.2 Billion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 758.2 Billion, Net Profit KRW 586.3 Billion, EPS KRW 7,555 (-13.68% YoY) (Consensus: Revenue KRW 11.06 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 821.8 Billion).
- 2026(E): Revenue KRW 11.78 Trillion (Financial Data: KRW 11,781.1 Billion), Operating Profit KRW 1.00 Trillion (Financial Data: KRW 1,002.7 Billion), Pre-tax Profit KRW 986.3 Billion, Net Profit KRW 771.5 Billion, EPS KRW 9,942 (+31.59% YoY) (Consensus: Revenue KRW 11.78 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 991.2 Billion).
- Consensus Comparison:
- Operating profit forecasts for both 2025 and 2026 exceed market consensus estimates (KRW 821.8 Billion in 2025, KRW 991.2 Billion in 2026).
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Tight MLCC Supply Dynamics & Non-IT Revenue Flipping IT:
- High-capacitance/high-voltage MLCC adoption is surging to stabilize power delivery for AI servers, which consume over 10x more power than standard servers.
- Industrial and automotive MLCCs have larger dimensions and higher dielectric layer counts than IT MLCCs, causing capacity loss (Capa Loss) during production and constraining effective industry supply.
- Major MLCC suppliers’ utilization rates entered the 90% range in 2H25. With new AI server launches and rising 800G network adoption, supply is expected to tighten further in 2026, favoring suppliers.
- The Component division’s Non-IT revenue share reached ~50% in 1H25 and is projected to officially surpass IT revenue share in 2026.
- Package Solution Division Visibility:
- Securing multiple AI accelerator clients in 2026 is projected to improve capacity utilization and profitability.
- AI accelerator and server FCBGA substrates feature over 2x the surface area and 1.5–2x the layer count of PC substrates, causing capacity cannibalization while yielding ASPs more than 10x higher.
- Samsung Electronics Foundry’s large customer wins provide additional valuation re-rating momentum for the substrate division.
- Optics Division Catalysts:
- Potential upside supported by strong foldable smartphone shipments from the strategic client; currently preparing camera module supplies for humanoid robots as a future growth driver.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The covering analyst views Samsung Electro-Mechanics as a company with strong downside support, overcoming consumer IT device uncertainties through high-value product mix upgrades and expanding data center revenue exposure. The core perspective emphasizes that AI server power demands and 800G networking adoption induce severe MLCC capacity loss, driving Non-IT MLCC sales to overtake IT in 2026, while multi-client AI accelerator FCBGA wins justify applying the 2018 shortage-era multiple of Target P/B 1.88x to 2026 book value.
To verify whether this investment thesis materializes, key trackable checkpoints include: 1) maintaining 2H25 Component capacity utilization in the 90% range and achieving 2025 Operating Profit of KRW 844.2 Billion; 2) confirming that Non-IT MLCC revenues officially overtake IT MLCC revenues in 2026; and 3) commercial supply ramp-up of AI accelerator FCBGA substrates across multiple clients, supporting 2026 corporate Operating Profit surpassing KRW 1.00 Trillion (projected at KRW 1,002.7 Billion). These developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR materials, regulatory filings, and corporate disclosures.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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