Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Roko Kim (RA Youngkyu Kim)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 330,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Upward revisions in operating profit forecasts driven by surging high-value memory pricing across AI server and mobile applications, coupled with valuation recovery potential as labor-related uncertainties resolve.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained; 12-month Target Price raised to KRW 330,000 (based on April 30, 2026 closing price of KRW 220,500)
- Target Price Rationale: 2026 and 2027 operating profit forecasts revised upward by +3% and +10% respectively, reflecting an expanded weight on 2027 forward earnings
- Market Consensus Data:
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 629.46T, OP KRW 310.49T, Net Profit KRW 249.88T, EPS KRW 37,325, BPS KRW 99,269
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 736.26T, OP KRW 380.24T, Net Profit KRW 304.02T, EPS KRW 45,872, BPS KRW 141,863
- Key Financial Metrics & Forecasts (Financial Data, 2024 ~ 2027F):
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87T, OP KRW 32.73T, Pre-tax Profit KRW 37.53T, Net Profit KRW 33.62T, EPS KRW 4,950, YoY +132.29%, PER 10.75x, PBR 0.92x, EV/EBITDA 3.60x, ROE 9.03%, BPS KRW 57,930, DPS KRW 1,446
- 2025: Revenue KRW 333.61T, OP KRW 43.60T, Pre-tax Profit KRW 49.48T, Net Profit KRW 44.26T, EPS KRW 6,564, YoY +32.61%, PER 18.27x, PBR 1.87x, EV/EBITDA 7.67x, ROE 10.85%, BPS KRW 63,976, DPS KRW 1,668
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 704.70T, OP KRW 367.04T, Pre-tax Profit KRW 371.79T, Net Profit KRW 292.14T, EPS KRW 43,372, YoY +560.76%, PER 5.21x, PBR 2.14x, EV/EBITDA 2.23x, ROE 51.72%, BPS KRW 105,711, DPS KRW 1,668
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 851.08T, OP KRW 497.66T, Pre-tax Profit KRW 502.40T, Net Profit KRW 394.77T, EPS KRW 58,609, YoY +35.13%, PER 3.86x, PBR 1.39x, EV/EBITDA 1.05x, ROE 43.99%, BPS KRW 162,686, DPS KRW 1,668
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Earnings Review:
- Memory division drove a substantial earnings beat on steep price increases (DRAM +93%, NAND +89%) and optimized high-value product mix (Server DRAM, HBM, eSSD) with flat DRAM shipments and +9% NAND shipments
- System LSI and Foundry met expectations with top-line growth supported by flagship SoC shipments
- Display exceeded forecasts on robust North American client shipments, while VD/Consumer Electronics and Harman missed initial estimates
- 2Q26 Earnings Preview:
- Revenue projected at KRW 170T (+128% YoY, +23% QoQ) and Operating Profit at KRW 89T (+1,773% YoY, +54% QoQ), with Memory operating profit alone expected to reach KRW 87T
- Pricing Assumptions: DRAM ASP +38%, NAND ASP +50% QoQ
- Top-tier global smartphone OEMs aggressively securing LPDDR volumes ahead of 2H Nvidia Vera Rubin deployment, exacerbating mobile memory shortages
- Robust AI server memory demand firmly offsets broader consumer B2C volume softness
- Labor Strike Noise & Sentiment Catalyst:
- Recent relative share price underperformance against global peers reflects heightened earnings uncertainty surrounding bonus-related labor disputes
- Resolution of the strike event is expected to remove key overhangs and act as a positive catalyst for share price normalization regardless of the specific outcome
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a market leader whose temporary share price discount—caused by labor strike overhangs—is strongly decoupled from its explosive fundamental earnings growth powered by structural AI server and high-end mobile memory shortages. This perspective prioritizes the severe LPDDR supply tightness driven by Nvidia’s next-generation platforms and broad-based memory pricing power over short-term B2C end-market volatility.
To assess whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification checkpoints include the delivery of KRW 87T in 2Q26 Memory operating profit, the realized sequential ASP trajectory across DRAM and NAND lines, the supply-demand balance of LPDDR following 2H Nvidia Vera Rubin rollouts, and the formal conclusion of labor disputes to restore operational visibility. These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings reports, official IR disclosures, and regulatory filings on DART/KRX.
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