Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Younggun Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 400,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Valuation discount removal driven by upward revaluation of the Foundry business backed by 4nm/2nm datacenter chip order wins, alongside accelerating HBM3E/HBM4 revenue growth from global big tech demand.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained; Target Price raised by +25.0% to KRW 400,000 from KRW 320,000 (50.4% upside potential based on May 6, 2026 closing price of KRW 266,000)
- Valuation Methodology: Valuation discount removed by raising the Foundry division valuation to KRW 138T, switching the valuation benchmark from 12MF EBITDA to 2027F EBITDA on improved medium-to-long term demand visibility
- Valuation Multiples (Current Price): 2026F P/E 6.6x, P/B 2.6x (trading at a discount compared to the market 26F P/E of 7.9x)
- Key Financial Metrics & Forecasts (2024 ~ 2028F):
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87T, OP KRW 32.73T, Net Profit KRW 33.62T, EPS KRW 4,950, ROE 9.0%, P/E 10.7x, P/B 0.9x, Div. Yield 2.7%
- 2025: Revenue KRW 333.61T, OP KRW 43.60T, Net Profit KRW 44.26T, EPS KRW 6,564, ROE 10.8%, P/E 18.3x, P/B 1.9x, Div. Yield 1.4%
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 664.26T, OP KRW 328.58T (vs. consensus KRW 332.11T), Net Profit KRW 271.28T, EPS KRW 40,275, ROE 48.4%, P/E 6.6x, P/B 2.6x, Div. Yield 3.9% (Preferred 5.5%)
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 844.32T, OP KRW 444.84T, Net Profit KRW 375.73T, EPS KRW 55,783, ROE 44.2%, P/E 4.8x, P/B 1.8x, Div. Yield 3.2%
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 912.65T, OP KRW 456.32T, Net Profit KRW 409.62T, EPS KRW 60,814, ROE 34.6%, P/E 4.4x, P/B 1.3x, Div. Yield 3.2%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Advanced Node Foundry Execution & Order Expansion:
- Datacenter-grade accelerator mass production capabilities validated via orders for Nvidia-targeted 4nm Groq LPU (mass production scheduled for 2H26) and Tesla 2nm AI chips (~KRW 23T, scheduled for 2H27)
- Successful launch of 4nm base dies for HBM4; ongoing 2nm order negotiations with multiple large customers, alongside potential foundry adoption by Apple and Qualcomm
- Full-stack turnkey business model combining memory and foundry emerging as a competitive differentiator
- Big Tech HBM Adoption & Explosive Revenue Growth:
- Expanding demand for custom accelerators across big tech—such as Google TPU v8t (216GB HBM3E), v8i (288GB HBM3E), and Amazon Trainium 3 (144GB HBM3E, purchase commitments exceeding $225B)—secures a supplier-favorable market structure
- Driven by 2H HBM4 shipments, 2026 HBM revenue is estimated at KRW 33.8T (+246% YoY), rising to KRW 63.5T in 2027 supported by a +25.7% HBM ASP hike
- Earnings & Operational Projections:
- 2Q26F Operating Profit: Estimated at KRW 74.5T (+30.2% QoQ) with DRAM ASP +23% / B/G +7% and NAND ASP +30% / B/G +3%
- Full-Year Operating Profit Projections: 2026F KRW 329T, 2027F KRW 445T
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a fully integrated semiconductor leader unwinding historical conglomerate valuation discounts through verified 4nm/2nm advanced foundry execution and full-stack turnkey integration across memory and fab capacity. This perspective places strategic priority on the structural diversification of HBM customer bases beyond single-vendor dependencies toward custom big-tech ASIC accelerators, combined with the upward revaluation of the foundry division.
To determine whether this investment thesis holds true over time, key verification checkpoints include the timely 2H26 mass production of 4nm Groq LPUs, official design wins and contract confirmations for 2nm client chips, the delivery of KRW 33.8T in full-year 2026 HBM revenue following HBM4 shipments, and tangible turnkey memory-foundry order expansions. These indicators can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and regulatory filings on DART/KRX.
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