Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities (Analyst: Younggun Kim)
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 550,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Valuation re-rating supported by full-stack manufacturing capabilities across DRAM and NAND, alongside in-house 4nm FinFET foundry capabilities for HBM4 base dies
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: Buy maintained, Target Price maintained at KRW 550,000 (Current price KRW 322,500 as of 2026.06.12, upside potential 70.5%; Target P/E of 11.3x and P/B of 4.9x for 2026F remain conservative relative to industry averages)
- Earnings Forecast Summary:
- 2024A: Revenue KRW 300.9T, Operating Profit KRW 32.7T, Net Profit (controlling interest) KRW 33.6T
- 2025A: Revenue KRW 333.6T, Operating Profit KRW 43.6T, Net Profit (controlling interest) KRW 44.3T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 732.4T, Operating Profit KRW 395.0T (exceeding consensus KRW 358.6T), Net Profit (controlling interest) KRW 325.0T
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 939.0T, Operating Profit KRW 528.8T, Net Profit (controlling interest) KRW 450.3T
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 1,013.0T, Operating Profit KRW 543.4T, Net Profit (controlling interest) KRW 489.6T
- Valuation Multiples & Financial Indicators:
- EPS: 2025A KRW 6,564 → 2026F KRW 48,722 → 2027F KRW 67,725 → 2028F KRW 73,635
- P/E: 2025A 18.3x → 2026F 6.6x (6.6x at current price) → 2027F 4.8x → 2028F 4.4x
- P/B: 2025A 1.9x → 2026F 2.8x (2.9x at current price) → 2027F 1.9x → 2028F 1.4x
- ROE: 2025A 10.8% → 2026F 55.1% → 2027F 47.9% → 2028F 37.2%
- Dividend Yield: 2025A 1.4% → 2026F 3.6% (projected at 3.6–6.4% for common and 5.7–9.9% for preferred shares under 50% FCF shareholder return) → 2027F 5.1% → 2028F 5.4%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Earnings Trajectory & Valuation Gap:
- Operating profit projected at KRW 98T for 2Q26F, KRW 395T for FY26F, and KRW 529T for FY27F.
- Despite strong operating profit growth, the company continues to trade at industry-trough valuation multiples relative to OP growth (P/E) and ROE (P/B).
- SSD Full-Stack Manufacturing Competitiveness:
- Tight DRAM supply conditions highlight the necessity of stable DRAM sourcing for cache and mapping in high-performance, durable SSDs.
- Internalization of both DRAM and NAND secures a distinct operational advantage over competitors in enterprise and high-end SSD manufacturing.
- HBM4 & Advanced Base Die Architecture:
- From HBM4 onward, applying advanced foundry processes to base dies rather than standard DRAM processes becomes essential.
- While global HBM peers rely on DRAM processes or outsource base dies to TSMC, Samsung Electronics has completed in-house base die development utilizing its internal 4nm FinFET foundry process (base dies estimated at ~15% of HBM4 cost).
- The strategic importance of internalized base die procurement is expected to expand further with future generations (HBM4E, HBM5).
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a full-stack memory manufacturer possessing comprehensive internalization advantages across DRAM, NAND, and advanced 4nm foundry processes for HBM4 base dies, rendering its current valuation multiples overly discounted. This perspective places primary importance on the long-term structural advantage of utilizing internal foundry capabilities for next-generation HBM base dies and stable DRAM procurement for high-end SSDs, rather than evaluating the company solely on near-term quarterly profit metrics.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key tracking points include the volume execution and competitive qualification of 4nm FinFET-based HBM4 base dies, the preservation of SSD supply advantages through internalized DRAM/NAND integration, and the narrowing of the valuation discount as projected 2026 operating profits (KRW 395T) are delivered. These developments can be confirmed through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, periodic financial reports, and official company IR disclosures.
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