Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : IBK Securities
Analyst : Woon-ho Kim (RA Min-gu Jang)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 300,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Sustained earnings outperformance and deep valuation discount driven by surging HBM3e share in Graphic DRAM and eSSD-led Blended ASP gains, refuting excessive AI slowdown concerns
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price: KRW 300,000 (Maintained) / Current Share Price (2024-10-24): KRW 198,200 / Dividend Yield (2024F): 1.3%
- Upward EPS Revisions:
- 2024E EPS: Revised up from KRW 21,337 to KRW 23,491
- 2025E EPS: Revised up from KRW 35,210 to KRW 40,232
- Financial Performance & Forecasts:
- 2022: Revenue KRW 44.62 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 6.81 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 2.23 Trillion
- 2023: Revenue KRW 32.77 Trillion, Operating Profit -KRW 7.73 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit -KRW 9.11 Trillion
- 2024(F): Revenue KRW 67.12 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 23.95 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 17.10 Trillion
- 2025(F): Revenue KRW 92.92 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 36.68 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 29.29 Trillion
- 2026(F): Revenue KRW 110.96 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 36.41 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 29.61 Trillion
- Valuation Multiples (2022 → 2023 → 2024F → 2025F → 2026F):
- EPS: KRW 3,063 → -KRW 12,517 → KRW 23,491 → KRW 40,232 → KRW 40,679
- PER: 24.5x → -11.3x → 8.4x → 4.9x → 4.9x
- PBR: 0.9x → 1.9x → 2.0x → 1.5x → 1.2x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.5x → 21.3x → 4.3x → 2.9x → 2.3x
- ROE: 3.6% → -15.6% → 27.6% → 34.8% → 26.6%
- Operating Margin: 15.3% → -23.6% → 35.7% → 39.5% → 32.8%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 3Q24 Earnings Review:
- Consolidated Results: Revenue recorded KRW 17.57 Trillion (+7.0% QoQ) and Operating Profit reached KRW 7.03 Trillion (+28.5% QoQ), delivering solid results above previous expectations.
- DRAM Segment: Revenue increased +11.7% QoQ and Operating Profit grew +31.4% QoQ (estimated Bit Growth -2.0%, ASP +16.1% QoQ).
- NAND Segment: Revenue dipped -5% QoQ, but Operating Profit improved to KRW 0.81 Trillion (+11.2% QoQ). A 60% eSSD product mix drove a substantial outperformance in ASP compared to market averages (estimated Bit Growth -14.7%, ASP +16% QoQ).
- 4Q24 Earnings Outlook:
- DRAM: The proportion of Graphic DRAM including HBM is expected to rise sharply due to the full-scale shipment of NVIDIA’s H200. The share of HBM3e within HBM shipments is projected to climb from the 60% range in 3Q24 to over 80% in 4Q24.
- NAND: Despite sluggish consumer electronics demand, persistent enterprise SSD demand will drive 4Q24 revenue up +15.8% QoQ (Bit Growth +12.0%, ASP +5.0% QoQ).
- Market Valuation & Structural Strength:
- The recent share price weakness reflects an excessive pricing-in of AI growth concerns. SK hynix continues to differentiate itself from competitors in Bit Growth and ASP trends, indicating attractive undervaluation.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix not as a legacy commodity supplier subject to cyclical discount amid consumer set weakness, but as an indispensable AI memory leader capable of sustaining premium ASP and superior profitability through unmatched HBM3e execution for Nvidia and expanding enterprise SSD portfolios. Greater weight is placed on structural earnings outperformance and significant EPS upgrades into 2025 rather than short-term market anxiety over an early AI peak-out.
To assess whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include whether HBM3e surpasses an 80% mix within total HBM shipments in 4Q24 alongside Nvidia H200 adoption, the fulfillment of 4Q24 NAND targets (Bit Growth +12.0%, ASP +5.0%) led by eSSD demand, and whether high-value product execution validates the upward-revised 2025 EPS forecast of KRW 40,232. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR materials, DART/KRX filings, and regular financial statements.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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