Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Young-gun Kim (Jae-ho Kim)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 260,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Sustained structural earnings expansion driven by proven 1b/1c node stability, upcoming 12-high HBM3E volume shipments, and locked-in 2025 supply commitments
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price: KRW 260,000 (Maintained; Target P/B slightly lowered from 2.1x to 2.0x) / Base Share Price (2024-09-19): KRW 152,800 (Upside potential: 70.2%)
- Target Price Valuation Logic:
- The recent share price correction is interpreted as profit-taking driven by conventional cycle concerns rather than fundamental industry weakness.
- Target price maintained at KRW 260,000 as 2025 operating profit growth (+71% YoY) is expected to remain solid based on secured HBM demand.
- Financial Performance & Forecasts:
- 2022: Revenue KRW 44.62 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 6.81 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 2.23 Trillion
- 2023: Revenue KRW 32.77 Trillion, Operating Profit -KRW 7.73 Trillion, Net Profit -KRW 9.11 Trillion
- 2024(F): Revenue KRW 68.15 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 23.42 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 17.78 Trillion
- 2025(F): Revenue KRW 100.42 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 40.61 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 32.28 Trillion
- 2026(F): Revenue KRW 102.60 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 31.47 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 25.46 Trillion
- Valuation Multiples (2022 → 2023 → 2024F → 2025F → 2026F):
- EPS: KRW 3,063 → -KRW 12,517 → KRW 24,423 → KRW 44,343 → KRW 34,966
- PER: 24.5x → N/A → 6.3x → 3.4x → 4.4x
- PBR: 0.8x → 1.8x → 1.5x → 1.1x → 0.9x
- ROE: 3.6% → -15.6% → 28.5% → 37.2% → 22.1%
- Dividend Yield: 1.6% → 0.8% → 0.8% → 0.8% → 0.8%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Leading-Edge Technology & Yield Leadership:
- The 1b nm node has completed performance and yield validation, with planned expansion to other applications in 2025; 1c nm development is on track for completion within the year.
- Secured technological leadership in migration and cost structure stands out amid rising process complexity and competitors’ development delays.
- 12-High HBM3E Commercialization & Profit Trajectory:
- Final development stages for 12-high HBM3E are completing, with commercial shipments beginning in 4Q24 for Blackwell integration.
- Supply agreements for both 8-high and 12-high HBM3E are largely finalized for 2025 (12-high offers +50% Bit density per chip alongside high-density pricing premiums).
- HBM Operating Profit Estimates: Projected at KRW 5.9 Trillion in 2024 and KRW 10.7 Trillion in 2025.
- Disciplined Operations & Financial Deleveraging:
- Maintaining conservative inventory levels and profit-oriented strategies considering potential competitor entry in HBM and Chinese expansion in legacy DRAM.
- 2025 CapEx is expected to exceed 2024 levels (KRW 20 Trillion) but represents an appropriate investment scale considering new cleanrooms and EUV installments.
- Deleveraging remains on track with 4 consecutive quarters of debt reduction and a KRW 7.5 Trillion net debt decrease compared to the 3Q23 peak.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix not as a commoditized memory producer vulnerable to down-cycle anxieties or legacy inventory digestion, but as an indispensable AI semiconductor leader that combines proven 1b/1c process superiority with pre-allocated 2025 HBM supply commitments to secure exceptional earnings visibility. Greater significance is attached to the upcoming 4Q24 12-high HBM3E shipments and projected 2025 HBM operating profit of KRW 10.7 Trillion rather than short-term market profit-taking.
To assess whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include the smooth execution of 12-high HBM3E customer shipments in 4Q24 for Blackwell, the full completion of 1c nm development alongside 1b node expansion in 2025, and whether 2025 HBM operating profit reaches the projected KRW 10.7 Trillion while sustaining net debt reduction. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR materials, DART/KRX filings, and regular financial statements.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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