Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Daishin Securities
Analyst : Seok-hwan Shin
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 265,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Sustained earnings growth and structural profitability differentiation driven by monopolistic leadership in 8-high and 12-high HBM3E and high-value product mix expansion, countering legacy pricing headwinds
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price: KRW 265,000 (Maintained; applying Target P/B 2.2x to 2025E BPS) / Base Share Price (2024-10-16): KRW 188,700
- Financial Performance & Forecasts:
- 2022A: Revenue KRW 44.62 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 6.81 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 2.23 Trillion
- 2023A: Revenue KRW 32.77 Trillion, Operating Profit -KRW 7.73 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit -KRW 9.11 Trillion
- 2024F: Revenue KRW 67.51 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 23.11 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 14.52 Trillion
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 91.89 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 35.58 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 23.19 Trillion
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 99.70 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 38.86 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 24.95 Trillion
- Valuation Multiples (2022A → 2023A → 2024F → 2025F → 2026F):
- EPS: KRW 3,063 → -KRW 12,517 → KRW 19,943 → KRW 31,857 → KRW 34,268
- BPS: KRW 86,904 → KRW 73,495 → KRW 92,483 → KRW 123,406 → KRW 156,767
- PER: 24.5x → N/A → 9.4x → 5.9x → 5.5x
- PBR: 0.9x → 1.9x → 2.1x → 1.6x → 1.2x
- ROE: 3.6% → -15.6% → 24.0% → 29.5% → 24.5%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 3Q24 Earnings Outlook & Breakdown:
- Consolidated Forecast: Revenue projected at KRW 18.3 Trillion (+11% QoQ) and Operating Profit at KRW 7.0 Trillion (+27% QoQ, OPM 38%), exceeding market consensus (KRW 6.7 Trillion).
- DRAM Segment: Operating profit expected at KRW 6.0 Trillion (OPM 48%). Strong shipments of 8-high HBM3E to major customers and server DRAM will drive DRAM operating profit up +29% QoQ (estimated Bit Growth +2% QoQ, ASP +15% QoQ).
- NAND Segment: Operating profit projected at KRW 0.9 Trillion (OPM 19%) supported by rising high-density eSSD demand (estimated Bit Growth -5% QoQ, ASP +6% QoQ).
- 4Q24 & Medium-Term Earnings Trajectory:
- 4Q24 Outlook: Revenue projected at KRW 20.37 Trillion (+11.4% QoQ) and Operating Profit at KRW 7.80 Trillion (+12.1% QoQ, +2154.0% YoY).
- 12-High HBM3E Roadmap: Shipments begin in 4Q24 with minor initial ramp-up costs, followed by full-scale volume expansion in 2025, significantly lifting profit contribution.
- Annual Forecast: Full-year operating profit projected to reach KRW 23.1 Trillion in 2024 and grow to KRW 35.5 Trillion in 2025.
- Industry Environment & Product Mix Strategy:
- Despite falling commodity memory prices caused by sluggish IT set demand and aggressive capacity expansion by China’s CXMT, SK hynix’s mix shift toward premium products (HBM, DDR5, LPDDR5) secures steady earnings expansion.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix not as a commoditized memory manufacturer vulnerable to legacy pricing declines driven by Chinese capacity additions and soft IT demand, but as a dominant AI memory leader sustaining superior profitability through its monopolistic position in 8-high and 12-high HBM3E alongside server-focused premium products (DDR5, LPDDR5, eSSD). Greater emphasis is placed on the multi-year AI GPU demand trajectory extending into 2025–2026 and the profit contribution from 12-high HBM3E rather than cyclical commodity price pressures.
To assess whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include the smooth commencement of 12-high HBM3E shipments in 4Q24, the full-scale ramp-up and profit contribution of 12-high HBM3E in 2025, and whether the premium mix (HBM/DDR5/LPDDR5) successfully preserves DRAM operating margins in the high-40% range against legacy price declines. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR materials, DART/KRX filings, and regular financial statements.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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