Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Eugene Investment & Securities
Analyst : Seung-woo Lee
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 280,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Expanding structural competitive moat in the HBM market and refuting memory winter concerns through strong multi-application demand forecasts and sustained margin expansion
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price: KRW 280,000 (Upgraded; applying Target P/B 2.5x to 2024–2025E average BPS) / Base Share Price (2024-10-24): KRW 198,200 (Market Cap: KRW 144.29 Trillion)
- Financial Performance & Forecasts:
- 2023A: Revenue KRW 32.766 Trillion, Operating Profit -KRW 7.730 Trillion, Net Profit -KRW 9.138 Trillion
- 2024E: Revenue KRW 65.742 Trillion (+KRW 32.9 Trillion YoY), Operating Profit KRW 23.331 Trillion (+KRW 31.0 Trillion YoY), Net Profit KRW 17.794 Trillion
- 2025E: Revenue KRW 81.473 Trillion (+24% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 32.792 Trillion (OPM 40.2%), Net Profit KRW 25.426 Trillion
- 2026E: Revenue KRW 84.223 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 32.126 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 22.977 Trillion
- Valuation Multiples (2023A → 2024E → 2025E → 2026E):
- EPS: -KRW 12,517 → KRW 24,445 → KRW 34,898 → KRW 31,521
- PER: N/A → 8.1x → 5.7x → 6.3x
- PBR: 1.9x → 2.0x → 1.5x → 1.2x
- EV/EBITDA: 21.7x → 4.1x → 2.9x → 2.5x
- ROE: -15.6% → 28.6% → 30.5% → 21.6%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 3Q24 Earnings Review:
- Consolidated Results: Revenue posted KRW 17.57 Trillion (+94% YoY) and Operating Profit reached KRW 7.03 Trillion, beating market consensus (KRW 6.8 Trillion).
- Historical Milestone: Broken the all-time quarterly operating profit record of KRW 6.47 Trillion set in 3Q18 after six years.
- HBM Mix: HBM expanded to 30% of total DRAM sales.
- 4Q24 Guidance & Outlook:
- Shipment Guidance: DRAM Bit Growth +5%, NAND Bit Growth ~+12%.
- HBM Mix: HBM revenue share is expected to reach 40% within DRAM.
- Consolidated Forecast: Based on company guidance and market conditions, 4Q24 Revenue is projected at KRW 19.3 Trillion and Operating Profit at KRW 7.9 Trillion.
- 2025 Market & Industry Outlook:
- The company expects higher growth rates for PC, smartphone, and server demand in 2025 compared to 2024, while HBM supply conditions are anticipated to remain tight, effectively challenging recent “memory winter” narratives.
- Following an estimated full-year 2024 OPM of 35.5%, 2025 OPM is expected to reach 40.2%, providing additional margin expansion room compared to the historical 2018 peak (OPM 51.5%).
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix not as a conventional memory player vulnerable to macro turbulence or cyclical peak-out debates, but as an advanced AI memory leader that has leveraged early strategic positioning to build an insurmountable competitive moat over peers in the HBM market. Greater emphasis is placed on sustained margin expansion and structural tightness in HBM supply rather than short-term legacy demand concerns.
To assess whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include meeting the 4Q24 shipment guidance (DRAM B/G +5%, NAND B/G +12%) alongside lifting HBM’s share of DRAM revenue to 40%, the persistence of tight HBM supply-demand dynamics throughout 2025, and the achievement of the projected 40.2% annual operating margin in 2025. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR materials, DART/KRX filings, and regular financial statements.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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