Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Shinhan Securities
Analyst : Hyoung-tae Kim (Associate Hyun-suk Yeo)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 290,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Differentiated earnings growth and structural profitability expansion driven by robust AI server demand for HBM and eSSD, alongside early revenue recognition of 12-high HBM3E
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price: KRW 290,000 (Maintained) / Base Share Price (2024-10-24): KRW 198,200 (Upside potential: 46.3%)
- Target Price Valuation Logic:
- Applied Target P/B multiple of 2.1x (the upper end of historical valuation band) to 2025E BPS of KRW 138,697.
- Earnings forecasts upgraded while maintaining the valuation multiple.
- Financial Performance & Forecasts:
- 2022: Revenue KRW 44.62 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 6.81 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 2.23 Trillion
- 2023: Revenue KRW 32.77 Trillion, Operating Profit -KRW 7.73 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit -KRW 9.11 Trillion
- 2024(F): Revenue KRW 66.07 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 23.52 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 18.40 Trillion
- 2025(F): Revenue KRW 90.31 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 38.92 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 30.73 Trillion
- 2026(F): Revenue KRW 99.30 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 39.25 Trillion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 30.50 Trillion
- Valuation Multiples (2022 → 2023 → 2024F → 2025F → 2026F):
- PER: 24.5x → N/A → 7.8x → 4.7x → 4.7x
- PBR: 0.9x → 1.9x → 2.0x → 1.4x → 1.1x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.5x → 21.5x → 4.2x → 2.5x → 2.0x
- ROE: 3.6% → -15.6% → 29.5% → 35.7% → 26.3%
- Dividend Yield (DY): 1.6% → 0.8% → 0.6% → 0.6% → 0.6%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 3Q24 Earnings Review:
- Consolidated Results: Revenue posted KRW 17.6 Trillion (+7% QoQ) and Operating Profit reached KRW 7.0 Trillion (+29% QoQ), beating market consensus of KRW 6.8 Trillion.
- DRAM: Bit Growth was -2% QoQ while ASP climbed +16% QoQ. HBM revenue reached KRW 3.6 Trillion, driving DRAM operating margin to 50%.
- NAND: Bit Growth was -16% QoQ while ASP rose +15% QoQ. eSSD revenue reached KRW 3.0 Trillion, securing a NAND operating margin of 17%.
- Robust high-value sales in AI server products completely offset legacy weakness in mobile and PC applications.
- 4Q24 Outlook:
- Consolidated Forecast: Operating profit projected at KRW 8.1 Trillion.
- Shipment & Pricing: DRAM Bit Growth +4% QoQ, ASP +6% QoQ / NAND Bit Growth +11% QoQ, ASP +2% QoQ.
- Industry Environment & Medium-Term Drivers:
- Resilient AI Demand: Buildout of new AI data centers combined with the replacement cycle of conventional servers. Despite AI monetization lag concerns, risks of hyperscaler server Capex cuts remain limited, supported by strong Taiwanese supply chain results.
- Application Expansion: In addition to GPU platforms, upcoming new ASIC chip deployments by year-end will broaden total addressable HBM demand.
- Technological Lead: Commercial shipments of 12-high HBM3E are progressing at least one quarter ahead of competitors, while accelerated migration to 1b advanced nodes reinforces natural legacy wafer curtailment.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix not as a legacy supplier exposed to commodity price cuts and mobile/PC demand soft patches, but as a high-margin AI semiconductor leader solidifying structural earnings outperformance through technological superiority in HBM and enterprise SSDs. Greater weight is placed on the rapid market introduction of 12-high HBM3E and demand expansion into custom ASICs rather than short-term legacy volume headwinds.
To assess whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include the revenue contribution from 12-high HBM3E shipments starting in 4Q24, the progress of HBM adoption across next-generation custom ASIC chips, and the sustained expansion of Blended ASP driven by 1b node migration and high-margin product mix. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR materials, DART/KRX filings, and regular financial statements.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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