Source Fact: IBK Investment & Securities / June 26, 2026
Investment Opinion & Target Price: BUY (Maintain) / 107,000 KRW
Core Momentum: Sharp earnings turnaround driven by a powerful base effect from last year’s one-off expenses and recovering dividend appeal backed by normalized H2 operations
📊 1. [Section Title: Valuation and Investment Metrics Analysis]
- Target Price & Rating: Maintained a ‘BUY’ rating and kept the 12-month target price locked at 107,000 KRW, offering stable upside relative to the current price of 91,400 KRW (as of June 25).
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026F → 2028F):
- P/E (Price-to-Earnings): Projected at 16.1x for 2026F, tapering down to 14.0x in 2027F and 12.9x in 2028F.
- P/B (Price-to-Book): Estimated flat at 1.4x consistently from 2026F through 2028F.
- EV/EBITDA: Tracked at 4.6x for 2026F, 4.3x for 2027F, and 4.6x for 2028F.
- Profitability & Growth Profile:
- EPS (Earnings Per Share): Expected to turn around sharply from 1,901 KRW in 2025 to 5,662 KRW in 2026F (YoY +197.8%), continuing steady growth to 6,497 KRW (+14.8%) in 2027F and 7,038 KRW (+8.3%) in 2028F.
- ROE (Return on Equity): Projected to bounce back from 3.3% in 2025 to 9.2% in 2026F, scaling up to 10.2% in 2027F and 11.0% in 2028F.
- Operating / Net Margin: Estimated at 10.6% and 6.6%, respectively, for the full year 2026F.
🚀 2. [Section Title: Target Addressable Market (TAM) & Detailed Earnings Estimates]
- 2Q26 Consolidated Earnings Outlook (Massive Base Effect):
- Revenue: Projected at 4.3433 trillion KRW (+0.1% YoY), maintaining stable baseline performance.
- Operating Profit: Estimated at 532.8 billion KRW (+57.5% YoY), demonstrating a sharp increase that broadly aligns with market consensus (4.4066T KRW / 532.8B KRW) and internal forecasts.
- Drivers: Last year’s Q2 was heavily weighed down by a new business suspension, subscriber churn, and roughly 200.0 billion KRW in one-time SIM replacement costs across the subscriber base, resulting in an outsized year-over-year base effect for 2Q26.
- Segment Breakdown:
- Unconsolidated (SKT): Revenue projected at 3.1037 trillion KRW (-1.0% YoY), with operating profit hitting 425.2 billion KRW (+69.5% YoY). While premium 5G plan penetration continues to push up ARPU, top-line growth is slightly checked by post-cybersecurity incident subscriber churn. However, operating income is soaring thanks to the evaporation of last year’s service fee spikes (+52.6B KRW) and miscellaneous operational costs (+153.5B KRW).
- SK Broadband: Revenue projected at 1.5122 trillion KRW (+2.9% YoY) and operating profit at 106.0 billion KRW (+15.5% YoY), supported by net additions in high-speed broadband and stable data center infrastructure expansions via the Gasan and Pangyo asset integrations.
- H2 Trajectory and Yield Outlook:
- With last year’s massive customer appreciation package expenses (discounts, membership expansions costing ~500.0 billion KRW across Q3–Q4) cleared out, normalized cost lines are expected to carry smooth operational recovery into H2.
- Backed by normalized operational cash flow, full-year dividend payouts are projected to return to 2024 levels at 3,540 KRW, offering a highly defensible dividend yield of 3.9% based on recent closing prices.
📝 Editor’s Comment (by K-STOCK Editor)
Who knew a traditional defensive telecom stock could pack this much dramatic flair? SK Telecom is serving up a massive plot twist with a projected 57.5% explosion in Q2 operating profit! Now, to be fair, this is a bit of a magic trick courtesy of last year’s major plot armor failure—when they got hit with business suspensions and had to cough up a massive 200 billion KRW to replace everyone’s SIM cards. It’s essentially the company screaming, “I had a rough shift last year, but I’m back on the clock now!” Plus, with those shiny new data centers in Gasan and Pangyo pumping up their cloud and infrastructure muscles, their next-gen growth profile looks incredibly cozy. While hyper-growth tech stocks are busy giving investors a stomach-churning rollercoaster ride, SKT is quietly normalizing its engine and rolling out a juicy 3,540 KRW dividend payout pack (a sweet 3.9% yield!). It’s the perfect setup to just grab your popcorn, kick back, and watch the dividend compounding magic do its thing all the way up to the 107,000 KRW finish line!
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