Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Younggun Kim (RA: Sehoon Jung)
Investment Rating : BUY
Target Price : 956,000 KRW (Raised)
Core Momentum : Extreme DRAM supply-demand imbalances and strong purchasing capacity from big-tech customers are expected to sustain historically elevated pricing, driving substantial ASP growth and upward revisions to 2026 earnings.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Target Price: 956,000 KRW (Based on P/B 3.0x, reflecting a 17.9% upward revision in 2026F OP to 128 trillion KRW)
- Investment Rating: BUY
- 2026F Financial Outlook: Revenue 229.56 trillion KRW, Operating Profit 128.11 trillion KRW, Net Income 107.51 trillion KRW
- EPS: 147,684 KRW (2026F)
- Valuation Multiples: PER 5.1x, PBR 2.5x, ROE 64.0% (Based on 2026F)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Price Surge Drivers: According to Trendforce data, PC DRAM DDR5 16Gb chip prices are projected to reach $32.4 by 4Q26, nearing levels once deemed abnormal for DDR4 16Gb chips ($32.1) amid extreme supply tightness.
- Bit-Cost Analysis: Converting unit chip prices into bit-based pricing yields $2.0/Gb, far exceeding the historical peak threshold of $1.0/Gb seen in past super-cycles. Since the estimated DRAM pass-through pricing for cloud providers such as AWS and GCS reaches $12–39/Gb+, their purchasing capacity remains virtually unrestricted.
- Earnings Outlook: DRAM suppliers are prioritizing big tech demand, with ultra-large OEMs securing long-term contracts at elevated pricing baselines. 2026F DRAM ASP is estimated at $1.0/Gb (+77% YoY), driving projected full-year revenue and operating profit to 230 trillion KRW and 128 trillion KRW, respectively.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK hynix as an enterprise capturing historic price surges reminiscent of past supplier restructuring cycles, achieving record-breaking earnings amid extreme market imbalances. The analyst highlights explosive ASP appreciation and successful alignment with big-tech demand.
To verify this investment thesis, one should track whether actual 4Q26 PC DRAM prices meet Trendforce projections, if big-tech long-term contract momentum and bit-based ASP growth translate into actual financial results, and whether the 2026 targets of 230 trillion KRW in revenue and 128 trillion KRW in operating profit are successfully realized. These indicators can be monitored through upcoming quarterly reports and regulatory filings via DART.
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