Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Kiwoom Securities
Analyst : Yuak Park
Investment Rating : BUY (Upgrade)
Target Price : KRW 2,200,000 (Lowered)
Core Momentum : Stronger commodity DRAM and NAND pricing and normalized HBM4 shipments are expected to drive a sharp Q3 earnings rebound, while the share-price correction has created valuation appeal against the brokerage’s outlook for HBM earnings growth in 2027–2028.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Stock Performance & Investment Rating
- Investment Rating: BUY (Upgrade)
- Target Price: KRW 2,200,000 (Lowered to reflect adjustments in commodity memory earnings forecasts)
- Current Price (As of 7/29): KRW 1,401,000
- Market Capitalization: KRW 10,234,198 million
- Valuation Multiples
- Annual P/E Trend: 2024 6.4x → 2025 11.0x → 2026F 3.8x → 2027F 4.9x
- Annual P/B Trend: 2024 1.7x → 2025 3.9x → 2026F 2.6x → 2027F 1.7x
- Annual EV/EBITDA Trend: 2024 3.9x → 2027 1.0x (2026F 1.6x)
- Key Financial Forecasts
- 2024: Revenue KRW 66,193B, Operating Profit KRW 23,467B, Net Profit KRW 19,797B, EPS KRW 27,182, ROE 31.1%
- 2025: Revenue KRW 97,147B, Operating Profit KRW 47,206B, Net Profit KRW 42,948B, EPS KRW 58,955, ROE 44.2%
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 326,959B, Operating Profit KRW 246,863B (OPM 75.5%), Net Profit KRW 269,457B, EPS KRW 369,885, ROE 106.1%
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 370,552B, Operating Profit KRW 261,869B (OPM 70.7%), Net Profit KRW 209,566B, EPS KRW 287,672, ROE 42.9%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Review: Operating Profit of KRW 60.5T, Missing Expectations
- SK hynix recorded 2Q26 revenue of KRW 79.3T (+51% QoQ) and operating profit of KRW 60.5T (+61% QoQ), falling short of the brokerage’s prior outlook and market consensus (revenue of KRW 83.7T, operating profit of KRW 64.8T).
- This was due to commodity DRAM and NAND price gains coming in lower than market average prices at +37% QoQ and +56% QoQ, respectively; however, these lower base prices will act as a base effect and serve as a factor to raise market expectations for 3Q26 earnings growth.
- Meanwhile, the production and shipments of HBM4—which previously weighed on the stock—are normalizing, supporting a stock rebound in the third quarter.
- 3Q26 Preview: Memory Price Gains Expected to Exceed Expectations
- SK hynix’s 3Q26 performance is expected to significantly outperform market consensus, with revenue reaching KRW 98.9T (+25% QoQ) and operating profit reaching KRW 78.5T (+30% QoQ).
- Overcoming the previous quarter’s slump, memory prices for both commodity DRAM and NAND are projected to rise by roughly +20% QoQ. Global server shipments are expected to grow from +17% YoY in 2026 to +23% YoY in 2027, prompting additional price increases for server DIMMs in 3Q26.
- HBM4 shipments to NVIDIA are also set to ramp up in earnest, accompanied by shipment volume growth and higher average selling prices (ASPs), leading to substantial earnings expansion. Business-segment operating profits for 3Q26 are projected at KRW 61.0T (+31% QoQ) for DRAM and KRW 17.5T (+26% QoQ) for NAND.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective & Thesis Verification)
The analyst has upgraded SK hynix’s investment rating from ‘Outperform’ to ‘Buy’. Although the stock has plunged by roughly 50% from its peak due to multiple market concerns noted by the brokerage (such as valuation burdens, North American AI CapEx pressures, and the listing of China’s CXMT), the current valuation has entered an exceptionally attractive zone when considering HBM earnings growth for 2027–2028.
To verify whether this investment thesis unfolds as expected going forward, it is necessary to track whether commodity memory price increases exceed +20% QoQ in Q3, whether full-scale HBM4 shipments effectively drive financial performance, and whether server shipment momentum and server DIMM price hikes are sustained. Such changes can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR reports, and broader industry shipment data.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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