Brokerage : Kyobo Securities
Analyst : Boyoung Choi
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 330,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Comprehensive memory supply shortages across commodity and enterprise products combined with accelerating HBM4 12-layer shipments and 1c-nm node transitions strengthen forward earnings visibility and structural profitability.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained; Target Price upgraded to KRW 330,000 (42% upside potential based on previous closing price of KRW 232,500)
- Valuation Methodology: Target Price derived by applying a Target P/B multiple of 3.0x to 2026F BPS of KRW 109,559
- Key Financial Metrics & Forecasts (2024.12 ~ 2028.12E):
- 2024.12: Revenue KRW 300.87T, OP KRW 32.73T, Net Profit KRW 34.45T, EPS KRW 5,433, ROE 9.0%, PER 9.8x, PBR 0.9x, EV/EBITDA 3.6x
- 2025.12: Revenue KRW 333.61T, OP KRW 43.60T, Net Profit KRW 45.21T, EPS KRW 7,241, ROE 10.8%, PER 16.6x, PBR 1.9x, EV/EBITDA 7.7x
- 2026.12E: Revenue KRW 669.71T (+100.7% YoY), OP KRW 340.48T (vs. consensus KRW 320T), Net Profit KRW 321.96T, EPS KRW 53,682 (+641.3% YoY), ROE 54.7%, PER 4.3x, PBR 2.1x, EV/EBITDA 3.3x
- 2027.12E: Revenue KRW 839.23T, OP KRW 424.36T, Net Profit KRW 408.10T, EPS KRW 68,115, ROE 43.3%, PER 3.4x, PBR 1.4x, EV/EBITDA 2.1x
- 2028.12E: Revenue KRW 905.32T, OP KRW 403.68T, Net Profit KRW 399.00T, EPS KRW 66,592, ROE 29.9%, PER 3.5x, PBR 1.0x, EV/EBITDA 1.5x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Earnings Review:
- Revenue KRW 133.9T (+69% YoY, +43% QoQ) and Operating Profit KRW 57.2T (+756% YoY, +185% QoQ), exceeding full-year 2025 operating profit in a single quarter
- DRAM: B/G +4%, ASP +94%, OP KRW 41.7T (OPM 78.0%)
- NAND: B/G +10%, ASP +93%, OP KRW 13.1T (OPM 65.4%)
- DS division OP reached KRW 53.7T, driving company-wide profit while non-memory and set businesses began reflecting component cost pressures
- 2Q26 Business Forecasts:
- Revenue estimated at KRW 158T (+112% YoY, +18% QoQ) and OP at KRW 81T (+1,625% YoY, +41% QoQ)
- DRAM: B/G +5%, ASP +34%, OP KRW 62.1T (OPM 81.5%)
- NAND: B/G +2%, ASP +28%, OP KRW 15.5T (OPM 64.7%)
- Industry Dynamics & Growth Catalysts:
- Tightening supply shortages across general server DDR5 and mobile LPDDR5X alongside expanding AI datacenter HBM demand
- Record quarterly revenue momentum in NAND driven by robust datacenter eSSD adoption
- Product mix enhancement accelerated by commercial volume shipments of 12-layer HBM4 and 1c-nm node transitions
- Labor strikes and non-memory softness viewed as short-term variables, with expanding LTAs and HBM4 commercialization bolstering earnings visibility and sustainability
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a market-dominating semiconductor manufacturer whose absolute earnings scale and durability are strongly reinforced by structural supply shortages and rapid technological transitions, comfortably outpacing short-term cost overheads. This perspective places primary emphasis on the synchronized expansion of high-margin product mixes—spearheaded by 12-layer HBM4 and 1c-nm node execution—and the growing proportion of long-term supply agreements that reinforce structural earnings visibility throughout the memory upcycle.
To determine whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification checkpoints include the realization of projected quarterly ASP increases and operating margins in DRAM and NAND, the smooth yield execution and commercial scaling of 12-layer HBM4 and 1c-nm transitions, and the continuous expansion of datacenter eSSD shipments under long-term contract structures. These metrics can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and regulatory filings on DART/KRX.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
Contact: Compliance and Copyright Inquiries (ksb220805@gmail.com)
